[Goose]

The economist has called Russia’s vaunted offensive a “damp squib”

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02...damp-squib

The question is whether Ukraine can exploit this disarray. One scenario is a repeat of last summer, when Russia’s conquest of Severodonetsk, a town in Luhansk, came at such a high price in casualties that Ukraine was able to punch through Russia’s thinned-out lines in Kharkiv two months later. If Russia expends shells and manpower in pyrrhic victories in Donetsk, that could pave the way for a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring or early summer—bolstered by Western armour that is on the way.

Something I’ve been saying for some time.  Btw, I had expected Bakhmut to have fallen already.  I think it is a matter of time, but that Ukraine has been able to hold out for as long as it has is probably a victory, and means that Russia has had to expend even more resources to capture it.

BC

IMO we haven't seen the Russian "offensive" yet. The fighting around Bakhmut is a continuation of what was going on before. The usage of convicts and untrained conscripts as cannon fodder indicates not desperation but conservation by Russia. I too expected Bakhmut to have fallen by now, and the fact it hasn't is a tribute to Ukraine. However, recently Russia has expanded the number of areas and the "width" of their efforts. They are also using formations of higher quality, like the 155 Naval Infantry at Vuhledar. Ukraine has so far successfully repelled these attacks as well, but it is a time-honored Russian tactic to expand the width of the battle area to allow their greater numbers room to operate, stretch the defense, and find a "soft" spot.

Russia has lots of uncommitted/not engaged troops in Ukraine. They have greatly reinforced the south with troops that right now are mostly standing around waiting for Ukraine to "do something". They also have lots of defensive resources in the Donbas that are not engaged. If Russia really wants an "offensive", you will see these troops committed. So  far, they aren't. It may be that Russia wants Ukraine to attack them and prefers to play defense. It also may be they intend to continue feeding forces into the fight until they find a hole.

The most probable explanation is that Russia is waiting for better weather and will exploit any failures in the Ukrainian defense, but Russia thinks a stalemate is OK for now. They think they can wear Ukraine out by constantly attacking and that eventually Ukraine will run out of morale. Russia has lots of combat power they aren't yet using. Ukraine understands this and that is why they have also been conservative so far in what they attempt. I don't think either side has yet "shown their hand".

[Goose]

The economist has called Russia’s vaunted offensive a “damp squib”

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02...damp-squib

The question is whether Ukraine can exploit this disarray. One scenario is a repeat of last summer, when Russia’s conquest of Severodonetsk, a town in Luhansk, came at such a high price in casualties that Ukraine was able to punch through Russia’s thinned-out lines in Kharkiv two months later. If Russia expends shells and manpower in pyrrhic victories in Donetsk, that could pave the way for a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the spring or early summer—bolstered by Western armour that is on the way.

Something I’ve been saying for some time.  Btw, I had expected Bakhmut to have fallen already.  I think it is a matter of time, but that Ukraine has been able to hold out for as long as it has is probably a victory, and means that Russia has had to expend even more resources to capture it.

BC

IMO we haven't seen the Russian "offensive" yet. The fighting around Bakhmut is a continuation of what was going on before. The usage of convicts and untrained conscripts as cannon fodder indicates not desperation but conservation by Russia. I too expected Bakhmut to have fallen by now, and the fact it hasn't is a tribute to Ukraine. However, recently Russia has expanded the number of areas and the "width" of their efforts. They are also using formations of higher quality, like the 155 Naval Infantry at Vuhledar. Ukraine has so far successfully repelled these attacks as well, but it is a time-honored Russian tactic to expand the width of the battle area to allow their greater numbers room to operate, stretch the defense, and find a "soft" spot.

Russia has lots of uncommitted/not engaged troops in Ukraine. They have greatly reinforced the south with troops that right now are mostly standing around waiting for Ukraine to "do something". They also have lots of defensive resources in the Donbas that are not engaged. If Russia really wants an "offensive", you will see these troops committed. So  far, they aren't. It may be that Russia wants Ukraine to attack them and prefers to play defense. It also may be they intend to continue feeding forces into the fight until they find a hole.

The most probable explanation is that Russia is waiting for better weather and will exploit any failures in the Ukrainian defense, but Russia thinks a stalemate is OK for now. They think they can wear Ukraine out by constantly attacking and that eventually Ukraine will run out of morale. Russia has lots of combat power they aren't yet using. Ukraine understands this and that is why they have also been conservative so far in what they attempt. I don't think either side has yet "shown their hand".