[TrumpCard]

The head of Wagner Forces publishing pictures of many dead Wagnerites and blaming Putin for failing to provide ammunition.  Sounds to me that the head of the Wagner forces should be careful where he sleeps.

That's a pretty strong step for Prigozhin to take. Seems suicidal to me -- he's not out of Putin's reach. Unless he thinks Putin will be imminently deposed.

I presume the West has at least some idea of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, but there sure seems to be lots of people with opposing opinions on the subject.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-...gh-1782655

From the article: "After GDP shrunk by 2.2 percent in 2022—much less than the 10-15 percent annual drop some had predicted early in the war—economists believe that instead of growth, Russia faces a decline in 2023."  I can't believe that after all the sanctions and the loss of a significant number of their educated work force, their GDP reduction was just 2.2%.  Seems inaccurate to me.

War casualties and young/educated defections to Western countries hurt Russia, I'm sure, but there are offsetting factors.  Russia's reported unemployment rate declined from 5.0% at the end of 2021 to 3.7% at the end of 2022.  A lot of people went to work in support of the war effort, many of them from prison or otherwise unproductive starting places.  The sanctions probably also forced Russia to rely more on domestic workers to produce other goods and provide other services the country needed, leading to the employment of Russians who otherwise might have been idle.  I'm not sure what other factors might be at play.  Are oligarchs spending more of their money domestically instead of traveling to Western countries to buy luxury items?  Did the spikes in oil and natural gas prices during parts of last year help fill Russian coffers despite the sanctions regime?  Is the government rapidly spending currency reserves to fight the war, leading to an unsustainable sugar-high for the economy?  I don't have enough information to be able to fully explain Russia's ability to avoid a massive decline in GDP, but I also have a gut instinct that the modest GDP decline is masking some significant problems in the Russian economy and society.

[TrumpCard]

The head of Wagner Forces publishing pictures of many dead Wagnerites and blaming Putin for failing to provide ammunition.  Sounds to me that the head of the Wagner forces should be careful where he sleeps.

That's a pretty strong step for Prigozhin to take. Seems suicidal to me -- he's not out of Putin's reach. Unless he thinks Putin will be imminently deposed.

I presume the West has at least some idea of how the sanctions are affecting Russia, but there sure seems to be lots of people with opposing opinions on the subject.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-economy-...gh-1782655

From the article: "After GDP shrunk by 2.2 percent in 2022—much less than the 10-15 percent annual drop some had predicted early in the war—economists believe that instead of growth, Russia faces a decline in 2023."  I can't believe that after all the sanctions and the loss of a significant number of their educated work force, their GDP reduction was just 2.2%.  Seems inaccurate to me.

War casualties and young/educated defections to Western countries hurt Russia, I'm sure, but there are offsetting factors.  Russia's reported unemployment rate declined from 5.0% at the end of 2021 to 3.7% at the end of 2022.  A lot of people went to work in support of the war effort, many of them from prison or otherwise unproductive starting places.  The sanctions probably also forced Russia to rely more on domestic workers to produce other goods and provide other services the country needed, leading to the employment of Russians who otherwise might have been idle.  I'm not sure what other factors might be at play.  Are oligarchs spending more of their money domestically instead of traveling to Western countries to buy luxury items?  Did the spikes in oil and natural gas prices during parts of last year help fill Russian coffers despite the sanctions regime?  Is the government rapidly spending currency reserves to fight the war, leading to an unsustainable sugar-high for the economy?  I don't have enough information to be able to fully explain Russia's ability to avoid a massive decline in GDP, but I also have a gut instinct that the modest GDP decline is masking some significant problems in the Russian economy and society.