[Giants]

[quote="Giants" pid='382728' dateline='1676836248']
I think Villar is the key to the puzzle.  If he gets off to a hot start, he would lock up 3B enabling the team to focus on 1B.  If he gets off to a slow start, he could be sent to Sacramento since he has an option left.  This would create an opening for Diaz or Wisley and a Davis/Flores to 3B move which in turn would scramble plans for 1B.  In other words, everything is fluid meaning (I hope not) the possibility of lots of shuffling/platooning.

Davis at third is a scary thought.  He is awful at third defensively.  I believe Wisely and Diaz both play some third.  Neither, unfortunately, play SS. 

Yeah, he's deadly and not in a good way. I still wonder if we'll see Schmitt before long.

I fully expect a lot of shuffling (aka The Churn) and platooning. It’s what they do. If Crawford was coming up under this regime, they’d have turned  him into a platoon utility infielder.  If they considered him at all.  I’ve seen nothing that suggests this regime values defense.  They pay lip service to it.  And then they stick Germain Mercedes in left. Cause he had great minor league numbers vs left handers.

I wonder about that. They were 5th in MLB and 2nd in the NL in RTot in 2021. I don't think that happened by accident. I think part of their problem last year was that they didn't have full spring training, and didn't get the reps they needed. 

What if Harrison rips it up this spring. And shows, unequivocally, that he’s ready. Do they really have to send him to AAA just because they don’t like skipping levels? Process is important. No question. But so is the ability to recognize that there are times that the talent exceeds the process. 

Two options emerge. First, you have a potential trade chip - Wood being the best possibility. Or you have a five man with Wood and Disco able to provide multiple innings in relief. After all, 5 inning starts are the norm. Harrison early wouldn’t give you more than 5. 

SP. Webb. Cobb Manaea Stripling Harrison

Pen. Wood Disco, Junis Brebbia, Alexander Rogers Rogers Doval. (Jackson won’t be ready at start) 

That gives you 3 long options. Which saves wear and tear on the high leverage relievers. 

Another aspect of this - Harrison will have a limit on his innings. Maybe 125? If ready out the gate, I’d rather get those in SF

Just for kicks - let’s say Harrison kills it, DeSclafani looks good and Webb, Cobb, Manaea Stripling and Wood all are healthy. 

I think he makes it only if (a) he absolutely destroys the cactus league with very good command and (b) at least 2-3 of the other 6/7/8 starters stink.

They'll also want to limit him to 125 innings or so. He's 21, you could really destroy his arm. He threw 113 innings last year and 99 the year before. I'd say 125 to 140 would be his top end this year. So if the first two conditions are satisfied and the Giants have four or fewer healthy, effective arms, then Harrison gets brought up.

---

ZiPS, known for their accurate computer models predicting MLB standings (among other things) currently project the SF Giants to have the sixth playoff spot. Specifically, here are their projected win totals for 2023:

Mets, 94 wins
Braves, 94 wins
Cardinals, 91 wins

Dodgers, 91 wins
Padres, 91 wins
Giants, 88 wins
Phillies, 85 wins
Brewers, 83 wins
Diamondbacks, 81 wins.

No other team projected at more than 78 wins.
The 2023 Start of Spring ZiPS Projected Standings: National League | FanGraphs Baseball

They were fairly accurate in 2022, at least in order. Their projected teams finished (in order), 1, 2, 5, 3, 4, 7, 8, 6.  The Giants were the team that underperformed the most.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back...ojections/

FanGraphs thinks Stanford's very own Austin Slater is the best role player in baseball. Slater's pinch-hit OPS is the best in MLB history (1.025) much better than Ted Williams' puny .953, or Albert Pujols' .948 -- and the article points out that he's a better fielder than you might think, tying a Gold Glove winner in a range metric:
Austin Slater, the Best Role Player in Baseball | FanGraphs Baseball

Former first round picks Chris Shaw and Kyle Crick are signing minor league deals with the White Sox and Rays, respectively.  The Reds want Cueto back.

On the other hand, PECOTA says 82 wins.

PECOTA projected standings paints different picture than ZiPS for SF Giants fans (aroundthefoghorn.com)

ZIPS - Skip the season and go directly to the playoffs!

[Giants]

[quote="Giants" pid='382728' dateline='1676836248']
I think Villar is the key to the puzzle.  If he gets off to a hot start, he would lock up 3B enabling the team to focus on 1B.  If he gets off to a slow start, he could be sent to Sacramento since he has an option left.  This would create an opening for Diaz or Wisley and a Davis/Flores to 3B move which in turn would scramble plans for 1B.  In other words, everything is fluid meaning (I hope not) the possibility of lots of shuffling/platooning.

Davis at third is a scary thought.  He is awful at third defensively.  I believe Wisely and Diaz both play some third.  Neither, unfortunately, play SS. 

Yeah, he's deadly and not in a good way. I still wonder if we'll see Schmitt before long.

I fully expect a lot of shuffling (aka The Churn) and platooning. It’s what they do. If Crawford was coming up under this regime, they’d have turned  him into a platoon utility infielder.  If they considered him at all.  I’ve seen nothing that suggests this regime values defense.  They pay lip service to it.  And then they stick Germain Mercedes in left. Cause he had great minor league numbers vs left handers.

I wonder about that. They were 5th in MLB and 2nd in the NL in RTot in 2021. I don't think that happened by accident. I think part of their problem last year was that they didn't have full spring training, and didn't get the reps they needed. 

What if Harrison rips it up this spring. And shows, unequivocally, that he’s ready. Do they really have to send him to AAA just because they don’t like skipping levels? Process is important. No question. But so is the ability to recognize that there are times that the talent exceeds the process. 

Two options emerge. First, you have a potential trade chip - Wood being the best possibility. Or you have a five man with Wood and Disco able to provide multiple innings in relief. After all, 5 inning starts are the norm. Harrison early wouldn’t give you more than 5. 

SP. Webb. Cobb Manaea Stripling Harrison

Pen. Wood Disco, Junis Brebbia, Alexander Rogers Rogers Doval. (Jackson won’t be ready at start) 

That gives you 3 long options. Which saves wear and tear on the high leverage relievers. 

Another aspect of this - Harrison will have a limit on his innings. Maybe 125? If ready out the gate, I’d rather get those in SF

Just for kicks - let’s say Harrison kills it, DeSclafani looks good and Webb, Cobb, Manaea Stripling and Wood all are healthy. 

I think he makes it only if (a) he absolutely destroys the cactus league with very good command and (b) at least 2-3 of the other 6/7/8 starters stink.

They'll also want to limit him to 125 innings or so. He's 21, you could really destroy his arm. He threw 113 innings last year and 99 the year before. I'd say 125 to 140 would be his top end this year. So if the first two conditions are satisfied and the Giants have four or fewer healthy, effective arms, then Harrison gets brought up.

---

ZiPS, known for their accurate computer models predicting MLB standings (among other things) currently project the SF Giants to have the sixth playoff spot. Specifically, here are their projected win totals for 2023:

Mets, 94 wins
Braves, 94 wins
Cardinals, 91 wins

Dodgers, 91 wins
Padres, 91 wins
Giants, 88 wins
Phillies, 85 wins
Brewers, 83 wins
Diamondbacks, 81 wins.

No other team projected at more than 78 wins.
The 2023 Start of Spring ZiPS Projected Standings: National League | FanGraphs Baseball

They were fairly accurate in 2022, at least in order. Their projected teams finished (in order), 1, 2, 5, 3, 4, 7, 8, 6.  The Giants were the team that underperformed the most.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/looking-back...ojections/

FanGraphs thinks Stanford's very own Austin Slater is the best role player in baseball. Slater's pinch-hit OPS is the best in MLB history (1.025) much better than Ted Williams' puny .953, or Albert Pujols' .948 -- and the article points out that he's a better fielder than you might think, tying a Gold Glove winner in a range metric:
Austin Slater, the Best Role Player in Baseball | FanGraphs Baseball

Former first round picks Chris Shaw and Kyle Crick are signing minor league deals with the White Sox and Rays, respectively.  The Reds want Cueto back.

On the other hand, PECOTA says 82 wins.

PECOTA projected standings paints different picture than ZiPS for SF Giants fans (aroundthefoghorn.com)

ZIPS - Skip the season and go directly to the playoffs!