[TrumpCard]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January

I take a lot of the public statements/leaks with a grain of salt.  There also was a seemingly grim leak a few that the West could not continue to provide anything and everything to Ukraine indefinitely, suggesting that aid would slow in the coming year.  I lack confidence that any of these statements are anything other than PR.  Some of them would seem to be non-strategic PR, but they could be intended for a different audience/purpose than I assumed.

It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

My concern is that tic-tac-toe is easy to play to a draw.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

I could also argue that Russia is taking territory, some of which may end up being strategic in nature.  Russia is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Oskil River near Kupiyansk and is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Zherebets River near Torske.  Regaining those sorts of geographic boundaries can make a difference in allowing Russia to defend against the coming Spring Counteroffensive.  

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

Even though Russia is losing a lot of forces during its offensive, that fact does not imply that Russia's well-planned defensive fortfications will be ineffective if/when Ukraine lauches its Spring Counteroffensive.  Ukraine will need to execute much better to achieve progress on offense than it has needed to do in order to hold ground (or only slowly give ground) when on the defensive.  I also see plenty of concern that the West does not appear to be on track to deliver the promised weapons on Ukraine's timeframe for its offensive.  

I don't mean to be the resident Debbie Downer.  Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive could well be a brobdingnagian success.  I just don't have a high level of confidence one way or the other as to what's going to happen next.

[TrumpCard]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January

I take a lot of the public statements/leaks with a grain of salt.  There also was a seemingly grim leak a few that the West could not continue to provide anything and everything to Ukraine indefinitely, suggesting that aid would slow in the coming year.  I lack confidence that any of these statements are anything other than PR.  Some of them would seem to be non-strategic PR, but they could be intended for a different audience/purpose than I assumed.

It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

My concern is that tic-tac-toe is easy to play to a draw.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

I could also argue that Russia is taking territory, some of which may end up being strategic in nature.  Russia is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Oskil River near Kupiyansk and is close to pushing Ukraine back over the Zherebets River near Torske.  Regaining those sorts of geographic boundaries can make a difference in allowing Russia to defend against the coming Spring Counteroffensive.  

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

Even though Russia is losing a lot of forces during its offensive, that fact does not imply that Russia's well-planned defensive fortfications will be ineffective if/when Ukraine lauches its Spring Counteroffensive.  Ukraine will need to execute much better to achieve progress on offense than it has needed to do in order to hold ground (or only slowly give ground) when on the defensive.  I also see plenty of concern that the West does not appear to be on track to deliver the promised weapons on Ukraine's timeframe for its offensive.  

I don't mean to be the resident Debbie Downer.  Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive could well be a brobdingnagian success.  I just don't have a high level of confidence one way or the other as to what's going to happen next.