[GK3]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January


It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

Wagner is saying Russia is no longer supporting the effort in Bakhmhut with enough supplies, hinting Wagner is being set up as a fall guy for the failure to take Bakhmut, so Putin can blame them as he seeks re-election.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

The tank losses mentioned earlier in this thread are truly staggering.  I also saw a piece that says taking tanks out of reserves may encounter problems such as missing critical parts already stripped to fix broken tanks in action or already sold off to line the pockets of someone in the chain of command.  The sanctions are also probably making manufacturing of new weapons more difficult since they have to import stuff through third parties.
It would certainly seem probable that as the influx of new weapons and other supplies from the West reach Ukraine they will be put to good use.  I really struggle to see how Putin can continue to suffer such severe losses without finding himself in trouble.  How long will the Generals be willing to see their men and equipment ground up in the Ukrainian mixer?  Heavy losses resulted in their departure from an incursion into another country nearly 40 years ago.  If the losses are as bad as these new reports indicate, I just can't see Putin surviving the status quo.  If Ukraine is able to launch a new offensive and take back a fair amount of ground and possibly threaten The Crimea I think the probability that he is gone will approach certainty.  Some bad things can also happen if this comes to pass.  It will be an interesting period.

[GK3]

The bit of news I've seen the last few days includes:

- General Miley saying Russia has already lost the war strategically and operationally
- Wagner saying they are basically exhausted
- Russian offensives going nowhere and with staggering cost in personnel
- Russian oil revenues falling 50% in January


It seems NATO and allies are playing chess to defeat Russia, slowly degrading Russia's ability to fight. and Russia is playing... tic tac toe, losing lots of times and learning nothing.

Wagner is saying Russia is no longer supporting the effort in Bakhmhut with enough supplies, hinting Wagner is being set up as a fall guy for the failure to take Bakhmut, so Putin can blame them as he seeks re-election.

It looks like all the Eastern offensives are a product of ramming sheer numbers of personnel into the front lines, and the supply of cannon fodder, err, I mean personnel, is running dry, not to mention morale is cratering.

The loss of oil revenue is going to cripple the Russian economy and make it that much more difficult to sustain he military operation due to such staggering losses. Putin is in no danger of losing his election, but he is in danger of facing more opposition than usual, and becoming weaker.

Even absent the longer range missiles, the western armor and fighting vehicles, mobile howitzers, and more air defense, are going to give Ukraine some pretty big sticks to use on Russia very soon, that seem like they will really allow Ukraine to make serious territorial gains. But Britain is talking about giving Ukraine longer range missiles the USA isn't yet, which will make things even more dire for Russia. If Ukraine gets more air power, it could put them over the top. I'd say the Spring is looking pretty up for the good guys.

The tank losses mentioned earlier in this thread are truly staggering.  I also saw a piece that says taking tanks out of reserves may encounter problems such as missing critical parts already stripped to fix broken tanks in action or already sold off to line the pockets of someone in the chain of command.  The sanctions are also probably making manufacturing of new weapons more difficult since they have to import stuff through third parties.
It would certainly seem probable that as the influx of new weapons and other supplies from the West reach Ukraine they will be put to good use.  I really struggle to see how Putin can continue to suffer such severe losses without finding himself in trouble.  How long will the Generals be willing to see their men and equipment ground up in the Ukrainian mixer?  Heavy losses resulted in their departure from an incursion into another country nearly 40 years ago.  If the losses are as bad as these new reports indicate, I just can't see Putin surviving the status quo.  If Ukraine is able to launch a new offensive and take back a fair amount of ground and possibly threaten The Crimea I think the probability that he is gone will approach certainty.  Some bad things can also happen if this comes to pass.  It will be an interesting period.