I'd say modal outcome is Ukraine regains territory to pre 2022 invasion borders and Putin stays in power. Russia has already lost half of all their tanks, including the shitty old ones they've been refurbishing. And they aren't making more very quickly. At a certain point Russian combat power will be exhausted, and I'm pretty certain it will be before Ukraine loses the will to fight. Like Afghanistan for Russia or Vietnam for the US, eventually even a stronger nation will decide they've had enough and just leave.
Ukraine retaking Crimea and Putin getting ousted would be upside scenario, but less likely. Russia holding onto the territory they presently hold possible but I think it's extremely unlikely they gain much more and hold it until hostilities end.
Ukraine retaking Crimea and Putin getting ousted would be upside scenario, but less likely. Russia holding onto the territory they presently hold possible but I think it's extremely unlikely they gain much more and hold it until hostilities end.