[Goose]

What a cheery post.  I'm hardly the board's resident optimist, but for now I am keeping up my hopes that Russia's winter offensive won't net too much Ukrainian territory.  I am concerned about a stalemate, but I don't really think the entire Ukrainian state is likely to collapse.  I suspect Ukrainians living in Kyiv, for example, will be better off as citizens of a stub version of Ukraine that continues to resist a full takeover than as citizens of a Russian-owned territory.  I can't imagine that life is great for Chechens or Dagestanis, for example.

I don't think it probable the Ukrainian state will collapse either. I don't have any expectations that Russia will overrun Ukraine in this offensive either. I wouldn't be amazed if they did have significant success, and I also wouldn't be amazed if Ukraine subsequently took it all back. What was being discussed was a scenario that involved being so desperate they would attempt to use nuclear weapons. If things get that bad I do think the Ukrainian state may collapse.

The decision by Japan to unconditionally surrender is an interesting case. The fact is nobody really knows what would have happened in all the counterfactual scenarios. One possibility not mentioned here yet was that the US naval blockade would simply starve Japan to impotence. Russia right now appears on a road to the "unconditional surrender" approach. That precludes a stub Ukraine surviving. Obviously if Russia reaches the point it "gives up" on that notion, other outcomes are possible. Right now, I doubt Putin can be persuaded to end the war short of total victory. Ukraine will never have the power to dictate the terms of a settlement. Russia may, and as long as they believe they can and are trying to do so, the war goes on. Unfortunately that is just how it is. The "trick" is to weaken Russia so it can't continue or get a leader in Russia who is sane enough to realize it isn't worth it.

[Goose]

What a cheery post.  I'm hardly the board's resident optimist, but for now I am keeping up my hopes that Russia's winter offensive won't net too much Ukrainian territory.  I am concerned about a stalemate, but I don't really think the entire Ukrainian state is likely to collapse.  I suspect Ukrainians living in Kyiv, for example, will be better off as citizens of a stub version of Ukraine that continues to resist a full takeover than as citizens of a Russian-owned territory.  I can't imagine that life is great for Chechens or Dagestanis, for example.

I don't think it probable the Ukrainian state will collapse either. I don't have any expectations that Russia will overrun Ukraine in this offensive either. I wouldn't be amazed if they did have significant success, and I also wouldn't be amazed if Ukraine subsequently took it all back. What was being discussed was a scenario that involved being so desperate they would attempt to use nuclear weapons. If things get that bad I do think the Ukrainian state may collapse.

The decision by Japan to unconditionally surrender is an interesting case. The fact is nobody really knows what would have happened in all the counterfactual scenarios. One possibility not mentioned here yet was that the US naval blockade would simply starve Japan to impotence. Russia right now appears on a road to the "unconditional surrender" approach. That precludes a stub Ukraine surviving. Obviously if Russia reaches the point it "gives up" on that notion, other outcomes are possible. Right now, I doubt Putin can be persuaded to end the war short of total victory. Ukraine will never have the power to dictate the terms of a settlement. Russia may, and as long as they believe they can and are trying to do so, the war goes on. Unfortunately that is just how it is. The "trick" is to weaken Russia so it can't continue or get a leader in Russia who is sane enough to realize it isn't worth it.