[Goose]

I think we agree that the Ukraine has really no options but to fight on.


I think we disagree on the source of Putin's support and if he can afford to retreat.



Putin originally rose to power in opposition to the Oligarchs.  He was the KGB guy that was going to oppose them and all that they stole from the Russian people.  Eventually he did a deal with them and made himself the richest man in the world.  But the Oligarchs hate him and always have.  That is why they have been getting murdered over the last year.

Putin did a deal because 1) he couldn't beat them and 2) he wanted to be one of them. As you say, he succeeded financially, but the Oligarchs hate him and, in the main, each other. It is all about power.

Putin gets his power from the military and the people.  Russians are intensely nationalistic and part of the reason he has a war every 5-10 years is to get the Russian homeland juices flowing.

Indeed. These wars don't much please the constituencies unless they are successful. For the Russian people, the jury is still out. If Putin captures the Ukraine, he can indeed claim victory, no matter the cost. That will "work" in the short term for sure, maybe not in the long term.

But as this war continues to go poorly eventually the military is going to be sick of their guys getting slaughtered.  Maybe they don't care about the conscripts but of immense proportions amounts of officers are dying as well.



My guess is in a stalemate the Ukraine has no choice to but fight on and the Russians / Putin do have a choice.

As you say, we disagree on this. If Putin can't take the entire Ukraine and attempts to freeze the war, Ukraine will keep fighting and thaw it out. If Putin attempts to return to the borders of 24 Feb, 1) Ukraine will say no, and 2) the Russian people won't stand for it. That will be a clear "loss" and Putin can't spin his way out of that. I agree Russia has a choice, but I don't think Putin does. We shall see.

[Goose]

I think we agree that the Ukraine has really no options but to fight on.


I think we disagree on the source of Putin's support and if he can afford to retreat.



Putin originally rose to power in opposition to the Oligarchs.  He was the KGB guy that was going to oppose them and all that they stole from the Russian people.  Eventually he did a deal with them and made himself the richest man in the world.  But the Oligarchs hate him and always have.  That is why they have been getting murdered over the last year.

Putin did a deal because 1) he couldn't beat them and 2) he wanted to be one of them. As you say, he succeeded financially, but the Oligarchs hate him and, in the main, each other. It is all about power.

Putin gets his power from the military and the people.  Russians are intensely nationalistic and part of the reason he has a war every 5-10 years is to get the Russian homeland juices flowing.

Indeed. These wars don't much please the constituencies unless they are successful. For the Russian people, the jury is still out. If Putin captures the Ukraine, he can indeed claim victory, no matter the cost. That will "work" in the short term for sure, maybe not in the long term.

But as this war continues to go poorly eventually the military is going to be sick of their guys getting slaughtered.  Maybe they don't care about the conscripts but of immense proportions amounts of officers are dying as well.



My guess is in a stalemate the Ukraine has no choice to but fight on and the Russians / Putin do have a choice.

As you say, we disagree on this. If Putin can't take the entire Ukraine and attempts to freeze the war, Ukraine will keep fighting and thaw it out. If Putin attempts to return to the borders of 24 Feb, 1) Ukraine will say no, and 2) the Russian people won't stand for it. That will be a clear "loss" and Putin can't spin his way out of that. I agree Russia has a choice, but I don't think Putin does. We shall see.