[BigJohn043]

A pretty well-sourced article on the possibility of supplying F-16s and other military equipment: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28...ce=Twitter

Spoiler, Goose is going to be upset that, apparently, training won’t start until a decision is made to supply the jets.

It appears that almost everybody has finally realized that time is NOT on Ukraine's side. https://news.yahoo.com/zelenskyy-russia-...p_catchall Their economy is a shambles, their cities are attacked by missiles constantly, and Russia seems willing to lose an arbitrarily large number of it's citizens to "win" this conflict. Ukraine can win, but they can't take 5 years to do it. IMO they can't take 3 years to do it, but there are a lot of variables in that assessment. For months "everybody" has been estimating that Russia is "almost" out of missiles and "almost" out of artillery ammunition. Russia isn't going to run out of artillery ammunition. They may be firing stuff that won't go of half the time, but 50% of a big number is still a big number. They are still building missiles and are now using newer S-400 vintage missiles as ground attack weapons. It is a poor weapon for this application, and very expensive for what it does. However, if you have thousands of them, which Russia does, that isn't a problem. Throw in a few KH-22s for a good measure. This bombardment  isn't going to stop. It may ebb and flow, but Russia is doing everything it can to make sure it continues.

I don't get this idea that time is not on Ukraine's side.

I agree that their economy has been totally destroyed.  GDP down ~50% or so.  But as long as the West is willing to finance the war and provide some form of humanitarian aid they can fight on.  And what are their options?  They can try for peace but whatever Russia agrees to they won't let NATO in so you just get another war in a couple of years.  And it will be hard to get the west to help them rebuild in that scenario.  And given the relatively low price tag I see no signs that the West isn't willing to finance this thing for a long time.  Maybe I am wrong in that but it seems like the only limiting factor for Ukraine.

OTOH, the Russian economy is also in the tank.  GDP is down ~20%  And they have to finance this war themselves with no external help.  Militarily they have also been on a long losing streak since the first few weeks on the war.  And Russia has some pretty clear options.  They can just retreat to the pre-war lines.  That probably dries up all of the Western military aid and turns it into rebuilding aid.

The worst case for Russia is they start to lose Crimea and the Dombass and the west lets Ukraine take those back.  And they might.

My guess is time in actually on Ukraine's side but would be happy to be told why I am wrong.

[BigJohn043]

A pretty well-sourced article on the possibility of supplying F-16s and other military equipment: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28...ce=Twitter

Spoiler, Goose is going to be upset that, apparently, training won’t start until a decision is made to supply the jets.

It appears that almost everybody has finally realized that time is NOT on Ukraine's side. https://news.yahoo.com/zelenskyy-russia-...p_catchall Their economy is a shambles, their cities are attacked by missiles constantly, and Russia seems willing to lose an arbitrarily large number of it's citizens to "win" this conflict. Ukraine can win, but they can't take 5 years to do it. IMO they can't take 3 years to do it, but there are a lot of variables in that assessment. For months "everybody" has been estimating that Russia is "almost" out of missiles and "almost" out of artillery ammunition. Russia isn't going to run out of artillery ammunition. They may be firing stuff that won't go of half the time, but 50% of a big number is still a big number. They are still building missiles and are now using newer S-400 vintage missiles as ground attack weapons. It is a poor weapon for this application, and very expensive for what it does. However, if you have thousands of them, which Russia does, that isn't a problem. Throw in a few KH-22s for a good measure. This bombardment  isn't going to stop. It may ebb and flow, but Russia is doing everything it can to make sure it continues.

I don't get this idea that time is not on Ukraine's side.

I agree that their economy has been totally destroyed.  GDP down ~50% or so.  But as long as the West is willing to finance the war and provide some form of humanitarian aid they can fight on.  And what are their options?  They can try for peace but whatever Russia agrees to they won't let NATO in so you just get another war in a couple of years.  And it will be hard to get the west to help them rebuild in that scenario.  And given the relatively low price tag I see no signs that the West isn't willing to finance this thing for a long time.  Maybe I am wrong in that but it seems like the only limiting factor for Ukraine.

OTOH, the Russian economy is also in the tank.  GDP is down ~20%  And they have to finance this war themselves with no external help.  Militarily they have also been on a long losing streak since the first few weeks on the war.  And Russia has some pretty clear options.  They can just retreat to the pre-war lines.  That probably dries up all of the Western military aid and turns it into rebuilding aid.

The worst case for Russia is they start to lose Crimea and the Dombass and the west lets Ukraine take those back.  And they might.

My guess is time in actually on Ukraine's side but would be happy to be told why I am wrong.