[Goose]

Maybe, finally, longer range rockets (GLSDB) going to Ukraine, eventually.

Yes, eventually being the operative word. Too bad in many ways. This weapon would add very little training or logistics burden while providing a significant range and destructive power benefit. It is however not yet really "available".
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-...ery-weapon
As of November 2022 nobody from any nation had bought one. If this was a "normal" procurement, none would deliver for probably two years. Maybe this time we can do "better", but this weapon has not yet really been tested "officially" yet. Problems often do crop up.

If we gave Ukraine ATACMS in appreciable numbers, an assault on Crimea could probably be successfully prosecuted, and pretty quickly. Kerch bridge would be dropped day one of an assault (and if we do ever send ATACMS I don't think it would be announced ahead of time).

For sure, although you are more certain than I am that we wouldn't announce it in advance. The main thing is that Ukraine needs it, and not "just" to blow up the Kerch bridge. The toll ATACMS would take on Russian logistics by it's mere existence would be "of immense proportions", let alone what it actually would destroy.

GLSDBs could eventually be in range of Kerch bridge if Ukraine retakes all of their territory to the Azov coast, but would be at very limit of range, likely making it possible to intercept.

I don't think that would be a factor. Shooting down missiles of this class is real difficult. I haven't seen anything from Russia that indicates their air defense system can actually do it. In theory, and in product brochures, yes. Lots of things Russia has claimed haven't worked as advertised. That said, I would bet you lots of money that Russia has several high-power GPS jammers covering that bridge and the surrounding area. They probably don't use them all the time, but if they get advance warning that could make hitting the target a lot more difficult. Russian GPS jammers work. The hope is that they will only do so once, but Ukraine doesn't have adequate anti-radiation capability to ensure that.

And would need to use a lot to appreciably damage the bridge.

Yep.

It seems to me the US is giving Ukraine the tools that could enable them to eventually win back most of their territory, but not the tools that could enable a quick rout.

It's not just the tools, although that matters. It will take a while to learn how to use them even if you have them, and that skill is necessary for a "rout". Hopefully once the skill is mostly in place, we can see such results. Supposedly there is a training course being designed to teach the Leopard 2A6 in 5 weeks.
UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/poland-aims-t...08114.html
We shall see, but I am a skeptic on that one. OTOH Russian morale isn't that strong, so if Ukraine can keep it that way getting the Russians to "run" may not be so hard.

[Goose]

Maybe, finally, longer range rockets (GLSDB) going to Ukraine, eventually.

Yes, eventually being the operative word. Too bad in many ways. This weapon would add very little training or logistics burden while providing a significant range and destructive power benefit. It is however not yet really "available".
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-...ery-weapon
As of November 2022 nobody from any nation had bought one. If this was a "normal" procurement, none would deliver for probably two years. Maybe this time we can do "better", but this weapon has not yet really been tested "officially" yet. Problems often do crop up.

If we gave Ukraine ATACMS in appreciable numbers, an assault on Crimea could probably be successfully prosecuted, and pretty quickly. Kerch bridge would be dropped day one of an assault (and if we do ever send ATACMS I don't think it would be announced ahead of time).

For sure, although you are more certain than I am that we wouldn't announce it in advance. The main thing is that Ukraine needs it, and not "just" to blow up the Kerch bridge. The toll ATACMS would take on Russian logistics by it's mere existence would be "of immense proportions", let alone what it actually would destroy.

GLSDBs could eventually be in range of Kerch bridge if Ukraine retakes all of their territory to the Azov coast, but would be at very limit of range, likely making it possible to intercept.

I don't think that would be a factor. Shooting down missiles of this class is real difficult. I haven't seen anything from Russia that indicates their air defense system can actually do it. In theory, and in product brochures, yes. Lots of things Russia has claimed haven't worked as advertised. That said, I would bet you lots of money that Russia has several high-power GPS jammers covering that bridge and the surrounding area. They probably don't use them all the time, but if they get advance warning that could make hitting the target a lot more difficult. Russian GPS jammers work. The hope is that they will only do so once, but Ukraine doesn't have adequate anti-radiation capability to ensure that.

And would need to use a lot to appreciably damage the bridge.

Yep.

It seems to me the US is giving Ukraine the tools that could enable them to eventually win back most of their territory, but not the tools that could enable a quick rout.

It's not just the tools, although that matters. It will take a while to learn how to use them even if you have them, and that skill is necessary for a "rout". Hopefully once the skill is mostly in place, we can see such results. Supposedly there is a training course being designed to teach the Leopard 2A6 in 5 weeks.
UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/poland-aims-t...08114.html
We shall see, but I am a skeptic on that one. OTOH Russian morale isn't that strong, so if Ukraine can keep it that way getting the Russians to "run" may not be so hard.