[Goose]

I think Bakhmut is realistically in danger now, as Russia seems to be putting almost all their eggs in this basket. Russia is losing some ground up north, and for the most part the rest of the lines aren't moving besides the greater Bakhmut area. For the past few months, those who know best have been saying Bakhmut won't fall anytime soon.  That language has recently changed, and now they talk about how there are layers of defensive lines behind Bakhmut.  It's hard to predict what will happen next, but I think it's possible Ukraine will withdraw soon, if the northern and southern flanks are compromised.

I too expect they will pull out in a timely fashion. IMO Ukraine is still holding back significant forces in order to repel a Russian assault from the North toward Kiev. The US is saying they don't see signs Russia is preparing for such an action, but the impact of being wrong about that is so large Ukraine is unwilling to risk it. It may be a strategic success for Russia. IMO Ukraine could commit more forces to the Donbas if they weren't so encumbered. Maybe better that they don't reinforce there anyway. Kherson Oblast is better tank country.

I hope the 500-600 troops being trained at Grafenwoehr will be followed by repeated classes. Having trained troops will be a force multiplier for Ukraine.

[Goose]

I think Bakhmut is realistically in danger now, as Russia seems to be putting almost all their eggs in this basket. Russia is losing some ground up north, and for the most part the rest of the lines aren't moving besides the greater Bakhmut area. For the past few months, those who know best have been saying Bakhmut won't fall anytime soon.  That language has recently changed, and now they talk about how there are layers of defensive lines behind Bakhmut.  It's hard to predict what will happen next, but I think it's possible Ukraine will withdraw soon, if the northern and southern flanks are compromised.

I too expect they will pull out in a timely fashion. IMO Ukraine is still holding back significant forces in order to repel a Russian assault from the North toward Kiev. The US is saying they don't see signs Russia is preparing for such an action, but the impact of being wrong about that is so large Ukraine is unwilling to risk it. It may be a strategic success for Russia. IMO Ukraine could commit more forces to the Donbas if they weren't so encumbered. Maybe better that they don't reinforce there anyway. Kherson Oblast is better tank country.

I hope the 500-600 troops being trained at Grafenwoehr will be followed by repeated classes. Having trained troops will be a force multiplier for Ukraine.