[Goose]

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/w...-update-11

Interesting analysis.  Suggests that Soledad might have been a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, and that, for whatever reason, they are not using much armor: just artillery and infantry.

The Russians over the last few weeks have seemed to remove most vehicles from their assaults operations. Either the vehicles are too vulnerable and almost all those being included are being destroyed, or they are having problems supplying them—regardless, they have adopted a strategy of mass, regular assaults by groups of infantry supported by artillery—a human wave.

Good analysis of the relative equipment strengths and trends between Russia and Ukraine.  Russia still has a decided advantage, but it is narrowing.

BC

While I too find the analysis of relative equipment strengths interesting, I think the analysis of "strategy" in Soledar is flawed. Wagner is leading the "assault" in that area and is fighting like Wagner always fights. They don't have lots of vehicles and don't need them. Their strategy in both Africa and Syria is to use the "locals" as untrained cannon fodder to fix the opfor in position and force it to reveal their position by fighting the assault. Wagner then uses artillery (which they "borrow" from the real Russian army) to destroy the opfor.

In the Donbas previously the Russian army used a variant of this process in which they simply blanketed the Ukrainians with artillery without regard to where they actually were and without fixing them in place. The army couldn't use it's infantry like Wagner used locals in Syria because the Russian infantry simply wouldn't do it. Too many of them would get killed and they knew it. This worked fine (slowly) as long as Russia had unlimited artillery shells. Ukraine now has enough Western supplied artillery (including HIMARS) that the Russian logistical system can't supply unlimited shells. The Ukrainians keep blowing up the depots if they are too close to the FEBA and if they are far enough away to be safe the supply of shells is inadequate for continuous saturation barrages. It may also be that there is an impending shortage of the shells themselves.

Wagner couldn't get the locals in Donbas to function as human waves. The people from Donbas are simply too smart to go out there and get killed. Failing that, Wagner "recruited" convicts in Russia proper. No need for vehicles because a maneuver warfare breakthrough isn't what is required. The convicts attack in small groups which forces the Ukrainians to stay in place and fight. They reveal their positions and so a much more limited artillery strike (if properly executed) can destroy them. If a few rounds are "danger close" or even among the attackers, who cares? They are convicts anyway, not really Wagner but just a "project". Wagner has in fact complained that the artillery support provided to them by the army is "inadequate". No mystery here in what is going on. Revert to what "works". As long as you have cannon fodder, you can do this and it requires relatively little skill.

[Goose]

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/w...-update-11

Interesting analysis.  Suggests that Soledad might have been a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, and that, for whatever reason, they are not using much armor: just artillery and infantry.

The Russians over the last few weeks have seemed to remove most vehicles from their assaults operations. Either the vehicles are too vulnerable and almost all those being included are being destroyed, or they are having problems supplying them—regardless, they have adopted a strategy of mass, regular assaults by groups of infantry supported by artillery—a human wave.

Good analysis of the relative equipment strengths and trends between Russia and Ukraine.  Russia still has a decided advantage, but it is narrowing.

BC

While I too find the analysis of relative equipment strengths interesting, I think the analysis of "strategy" in Soledar is flawed. Wagner is leading the "assault" in that area and is fighting like Wagner always fights. They don't have lots of vehicles and don't need them. Their strategy in both Africa and Syria is to use the "locals" as untrained cannon fodder to fix the opfor in position and force it to reveal their position by fighting the assault. Wagner then uses artillery (which they "borrow" from the real Russian army) to destroy the opfor.

In the Donbas previously the Russian army used a variant of this process in which they simply blanketed the Ukrainians with artillery without regard to where they actually were and without fixing them in place. The army couldn't use it's infantry like Wagner used locals in Syria because the Russian infantry simply wouldn't do it. Too many of them would get killed and they knew it. This worked fine (slowly) as long as Russia had unlimited artillery shells. Ukraine now has enough Western supplied artillery (including HIMARS) that the Russian logistical system can't supply unlimited shells. The Ukrainians keep blowing up the depots if they are too close to the FEBA and if they are far enough away to be safe the supply of shells is inadequate for continuous saturation barrages. It may also be that there is an impending shortage of the shells themselves.

Wagner couldn't get the locals in Donbas to function as human waves. The people from Donbas are simply too smart to go out there and get killed. Failing that, Wagner "recruited" convicts in Russia proper. No need for vehicles because a maneuver warfare breakthrough isn't what is required. The convicts attack in small groups which forces the Ukrainians to stay in place and fight. They reveal their positions and so a much more limited artillery strike (if properly executed) can destroy them. If a few rounds are "danger close" or even among the attackers, who cares? They are convicts anyway, not really Wagner but just a "project". Wagner has in fact complained that the artillery support provided to them by the army is "inadequate". No mystery here in what is going on. Revert to what "works". As long as you have cannon fodder, you can do this and it requires relatively little skill.