(01-12-2023, 09:14 AM)Mick Wrote: Putin has shaken up his military leadership again. He replaced Gen. Sergei Surovikin as leader of his military in Ukraine with Gen. Valery Gerasimov. Surovikin will report to Gerasimov. Surovikin had been in charge only since October.
Russia shakes up military leadership again
There is enough to be depressed about in this war, eg the fact the war exists at all. That said, I believe the "West" (and the rest of the world for that matter) needs to face the possibility that Russia will be going through a period of at best instability and at worst who knows what. Even if Putin isn't deposed because he is losing/loses this war, he is not a young man.
There are also quite a few "power centers" in Russia that want to have much more power if not superseded Putin. The "manager/owner" of Wagner (Prigozhin) undoubtedly intends to expand his power in Russia. Whether he would challenge Putin directly or simply wait for him to quit/die is unknowable, but there is certainly palace intrigue going on there. The Russian Army has learned over the years to stay out of politics. They have their own "sphere of influence" and expect it to be respected in return for their support of "the center". When that respect is missing, nobody knows what will be the response but it probably won't be "constructive". They all hate Wagner, and it is mutual. There is of course a power struggle going on in the Russian military. The press trends to categorize this as "hawks" vs "doves", but it is much more complex than that. Every serving officer has to watch his back, and that is easier to do with "allies". However, you can't trust your allies very far, so there are all kinds of "working arrangements" between individuals that have nothing in common ideologically but want to survive and advance is a very messed up system. Kadyrov is also another "player". He probably realizes he can't ever be head of the Russian Federation, but he certainly can have a lot of power inside it. He also may decide he once again wants to rule an independent Chechnya. This may be his "price" for functioning as a kingmaker in Russia. Obviously there are many other "players" and even more people who are "want to be" players. Instability is the best result possible here, and much worse is certainly on the table.
As I have said previously, in Russia the one you really have to watch out for is somebody you never heard of that has quietly been lining up support under the radar and who will move quickly and effectively. Some obscure FSB Colonel for instance. All this instability in Russia will exist no matter how long the war in Ukraine goes on or who finally "wins" it. If Russia loses, things will happen quickly. If Russia doesn't give up but continues to fight and/or "wins", things will still happen. The Russian economy isn't going to recover quickly (if at all) and sanctions will continue to bite. It is going to be a mess, and I dearly hope the "Government" in Washington and also the rest of the "West" are preparing for every eventuality. It could get real messy real fast.