[Goose]

I'm not saying that Ukraine would be doomed if Bakhmut fell.  I'm just noting the NYT view that Ukraine is putting a lot of troops into the battle for Bakhmut, possibly creating vulnerabilities.  I just hope that Ukraine's leadership has figured out evacuation plans in the event the town falls.  I expect that's true, and if so, then maybe the NYT's point is overblown.

Politically it is pretty important to defend Bakhmut. Tactically is is useful but not essential. The evacuation strategy and the willingness to execute it when/if appropriate is indeed the issue. So far, Ukraine has been real good at this, so lets hope it continues. Right now, I think Ukraine believes Russia is doing something stupid by losing lots of people there and are following the strategy of never getting in the way of your opponent doing something stupid :-).

I think the value of Bakhmut was much higher before Ukraine recaptured Izium.  Slovyansk is midway between Izium and Bakhmut, and had the Russians held Bakhmut and Izium they would have been able to conduct a pincer maneuver on Slovyansk, potentially collapsing the Ukrainian salient into a cauldron between Slovyansk and Lysyshansk.   That danger has since disappeared.  Russian capture of Bakhmut does potentially give them a gateway to Slovyansk, but I don't think anyone thinks Russia will be much of a threat to Slovyansk even if they have Bakhmut in hand.

BC

I think that is exactly the case. Obviously being astride the two roads at Bakhmut is useful, but they are controlled "upstream" anyway.

[Goose]

I'm not saying that Ukraine would be doomed if Bakhmut fell.  I'm just noting the NYT view that Ukraine is putting a lot of troops into the battle for Bakhmut, possibly creating vulnerabilities.  I just hope that Ukraine's leadership has figured out evacuation plans in the event the town falls.  I expect that's true, and if so, then maybe the NYT's point is overblown.

Politically it is pretty important to defend Bakhmut. Tactically is is useful but not essential. The evacuation strategy and the willingness to execute it when/if appropriate is indeed the issue. So far, Ukraine has been real good at this, so lets hope it continues. Right now, I think Ukraine believes Russia is doing something stupid by losing lots of people there and are following the strategy of never getting in the way of your opponent doing something stupid :-).

I think the value of Bakhmut was much higher before Ukraine recaptured Izium.  Slovyansk is midway between Izium and Bakhmut, and had the Russians held Bakhmut and Izium they would have been able to conduct a pincer maneuver on Slovyansk, potentially collapsing the Ukrainian salient into a cauldron between Slovyansk and Lysyshansk.   That danger has since disappeared.  Russian capture of Bakhmut does potentially give them a gateway to Slovyansk, but I don't think anyone thinks Russia will be much of a threat to Slovyansk even if they have Bakhmut in hand.

BC

I think that is exactly the case. Obviously being astride the two roads at Bakhmut is useful, but they are controlled "upstream" anyway.