[Goose]

Do you see an end to this conflict in the next 6 months?  I’m not sure I do. If the US is coming around to the view that Ukraine needs a long term plan, I see no reason to withhold fighter jets. Even if this particular hot period of the conflict were to end within 6 months, Ukraine would need a viable military to defend itself in case of future attacks. May as well get started on that now. Aside from the long term need for a viable army, the threat of having western fighter jets available by Fall, or even by next year, might help Ukraine achieve a more favorable peace deal.

I don't have any idea how long this conflict will last. Either side could unexpectedly collapse tomorrow. OTOH, both sides are trying to project a posture that they will fight "as long as it takes". One side is undoubtedly wrong about that, anybody's guess as to which one. I do agree with your belief that the US needs to prepare for the eventuality it will be a "long" war and that Ukraine will need a viable defense in the future. I am of the opinion that we are not actually looking that far ahead, unfortunately. It would have been wise to start training pilots and ground crews back in early 2022 just in case we eventually decided to send F-16s. That way the Russians would face an effective fighting force they were not prepared for that could be very effective immediately. Given that we didn't do that "then", we should do so "now".

The problems with announcing the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine and subsequently starting the steps necessary to actually implement that decision are not trivial. First, any escalateory response by Russia would probably be immediate. Ukraine would bear the cost of the "gift" for six months or more before the gift helped them any. Russia may do nothing, but that isn't a given. Second, Russia would be given the opportunity to both attempt to interfere with the delivery of the F-16s and also to develop a strategy to counter this new force. The chaos that Ukraine suddenly having an air force could inflict on surprised and unprepared Russian forces in Ukraine is brobdingnagian. Forfeiting that surprise would be extremely unwise IMO.

Whether or not the US is seriously anywhere near deciding to deliver F-16s to Ukraine is unknown to me, but I tend to doubt the US thinks they could politically get that through the congress right now. I am also pretty sure our NATO allies, at least some of them, would regard it as too risky. That is why I like the idea of preparing to do it, doing the training etc, and also preparing the political ground. This can be done without getting "approval" from anybody. That way, once it is possible, we have the option of doing it (or not) and getting maximum benefit. Ukraine would get the jets as soon as they would get them anyway.

[Goose]

Do you see an end to this conflict in the next 6 months?  I’m not sure I do. If the US is coming around to the view that Ukraine needs a long term plan, I see no reason to withhold fighter jets. Even if this particular hot period of the conflict were to end within 6 months, Ukraine would need a viable military to defend itself in case of future attacks. May as well get started on that now. Aside from the long term need for a viable army, the threat of having western fighter jets available by Fall, or even by next year, might help Ukraine achieve a more favorable peace deal.

I don't have any idea how long this conflict will last. Either side could unexpectedly collapse tomorrow. OTOH, both sides are trying to project a posture that they will fight "as long as it takes". One side is undoubtedly wrong about that, anybody's guess as to which one. I do agree with your belief that the US needs to prepare for the eventuality it will be a "long" war and that Ukraine will need a viable defense in the future. I am of the opinion that we are not actually looking that far ahead, unfortunately. It would have been wise to start training pilots and ground crews back in early 2022 just in case we eventually decided to send F-16s. That way the Russians would face an effective fighting force they were not prepared for that could be very effective immediately. Given that we didn't do that "then", we should do so "now".

The problems with announcing the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine and subsequently starting the steps necessary to actually implement that decision are not trivial. First, any escalateory response by Russia would probably be immediate. Ukraine would bear the cost of the "gift" for six months or more before the gift helped them any. Russia may do nothing, but that isn't a given. Second, Russia would be given the opportunity to both attempt to interfere with the delivery of the F-16s and also to develop a strategy to counter this new force. The chaos that Ukraine suddenly having an air force could inflict on surprised and unprepared Russian forces in Ukraine is brobdingnagian. Forfeiting that surprise would be extremely unwise IMO.

Whether or not the US is seriously anywhere near deciding to deliver F-16s to Ukraine is unknown to me, but I tend to doubt the US thinks they could politically get that through the congress right now. I am also pretty sure our NATO allies, at least some of them, would regard it as too risky. That is why I like the idea of preparing to do it, doing the training etc, and also preparing the political ground. This can be done without getting "approval" from anybody. That way, once it is possible, we have the option of doing it (or not) and getting maximum benefit. Ukraine would get the jets as soon as they would get them anyway.