[Goose]

Difference between HiMARS and ATACAMS is the possibility of it being aimed at Russian territory. I think the Us could have extracted a promise, that Ukraine would have kept, to only use it for Russian troops in Ukraine, but Russia might not have viewed it that way.

It’s not where I would have drawn the line, but there is a rational line to be drawn.

BC

Actually BC, the HIMARS can easily reach Russian territory from lots of places in the Ukraine, particularly in the North. The Ukrainians can also throw rocks across it. The distinction is that the number of "major" military targets inside Russia proper that HIMARS can reach is pretty limited, while with ATACMS it is much less limited. It is indeed a matter of degree, but if Ukraine wanted to gratuitously piss of the US by firing HIMARS into some Russian towns, they could do it. Obviously, that would be insane on their part.

Sadly, I think our unwillingness to provide ATACMS to Russia is driven by the fact the President said we weren't going to do so early on in the war. Once he said that, doing so would be arguably "dishonest". The Russians would certainly look at it that way and would play it that way. I think we have convinced ourselves we can't go back on this "pledge", even though that undoubtedly was not what was intended by the statement at the time.

If we can get JDAMs to work in Ukraine, that may actually be better than ATACMS in that larger (2000 lb) "warheads" can be delivered onto Russian strong points/fortifications. We also have a much bigger stockpile of bombs than we do ATACMS. We can also make more of them much easier. All in all, I would take that alternative if we can execute it rapidly. The US has stated that the launchers delivered to Ukraine have been "modified" so they can't launch ATACMS. I strongly suspect that was a software modification that is easily reversed. Giving Ukraine ATACMS would be "easy", but it appears we simply aren't going to to it. I have some hope for JDAMS as an effective alternative. I would REALLY like to see SLAM-ERs. I think that would make Ukraine very happy and Russia very mad, so that probably isn't going to happen.

[Goose]

Difference between HiMARS and ATACAMS is the possibility of it being aimed at Russian territory. I think the Us could have extracted a promise, that Ukraine would have kept, to only use it for Russian troops in Ukraine, but Russia might not have viewed it that way.

It’s not where I would have drawn the line, but there is a rational line to be drawn.

BC

Actually BC, the HIMARS can easily reach Russian territory from lots of places in the Ukraine, particularly in the North. The Ukrainians can also throw rocks across it. The distinction is that the number of "major" military targets inside Russia proper that HIMARS can reach is pretty limited, while with ATACMS it is much less limited. It is indeed a matter of degree, but if Ukraine wanted to gratuitously piss of the US by firing HIMARS into some Russian towns, they could do it. Obviously, that would be insane on their part.

Sadly, I think our unwillingness to provide ATACMS to Russia is driven by the fact the President said we weren't going to do so early on in the war. Once he said that, doing so would be arguably "dishonest". The Russians would certainly look at it that way and would play it that way. I think we have convinced ourselves we can't go back on this "pledge", even though that undoubtedly was not what was intended by the statement at the time.

If we can get JDAMs to work in Ukraine, that may actually be better than ATACMS in that larger (2000 lb) "warheads" can be delivered onto Russian strong points/fortifications. We also have a much bigger stockpile of bombs than we do ATACMS. We can also make more of them much easier. All in all, I would take that alternative if we can execute it rapidly. The US has stated that the launchers delivered to Ukraine have been "modified" so they can't launch ATACMS. I strongly suspect that was a software modification that is easily reversed. Giving Ukraine ATACMS would be "easy", but it appears we simply aren't going to to it. I have some hope for JDAMS as an effective alternative. I would REALLY like to see SLAM-ERs. I think that would make Ukraine very happy and Russia very mad, so that probably isn't going to happen.