[81alum]

Some here have fretted that a scenario in which Russia is losing the war will lead Russia to use nuclear weapons.  I am among those people.  Here's a thought experiment for us:  

What difference does it make if Russia is losing to Ukraine because Ukraine got HIMARS from the West or if Russia is losing to Ukraine because Ukraine got ATACMS from the West?  If we're worried that ATACMS would allow Ukraine to win, then shouldn't we have been worried that HIMARS would do the same?  Or did we know that HIMARS was the weapons system needed to just keep Ukraine from being leveled entirely?  If the concern is that the West's help will put Russia against the ropes where Russia has no choice but to swing with some haymakers, then shouldn't the West's goal be to create another "frozen conflict" like the ones Russia has established in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, etc?  

That would be a very bad outcome for Ukraine, but would it actually be a bad outcome for the West, as long as there's a viable Ukrainian state that still provides a buffer between Russia and NATO?  Is it possible that NATO's apparent bumbling is really just NATO's thoughtful analysis of what's necessary to prevent Russia from marching onto Vienna or Budapest or Warsaw?

I think some NATO countries would in fact be content with some kind of stalemate, and are becoming more willing to support a peace based upon the current map, which would of course reward Russian aggression.  I worry about statements Macron made about Russia's "legitimate security needs" for example.  So, yes, I think there are those who do not want either side to "win."

I think the most optimistic scenario is that the stalemate continues but Ukraine does well enough to continue to embarrass Putin, leading to his internal removal.  Russia would not "lose" but could extricate itself from Ukraine by throwing Vlad under the bus.  I'm not sure that is likely, however.  Hard to know which side is favored if the war drags on.  Putin thinks he is, that the West will inevitably grow impatient and the Ukrainian people grow cold.

[81alum]

Some here have fretted that a scenario in which Russia is losing the war will lead Russia to use nuclear weapons.  I am among those people.  Here's a thought experiment for us:  

What difference does it make if Russia is losing to Ukraine because Ukraine got HIMARS from the West or if Russia is losing to Ukraine because Ukraine got ATACMS from the West?  If we're worried that ATACMS would allow Ukraine to win, then shouldn't we have been worried that HIMARS would do the same?  Or did we know that HIMARS was the weapons system needed to just keep Ukraine from being leveled entirely?  If the concern is that the West's help will put Russia against the ropes where Russia has no choice but to swing with some haymakers, then shouldn't the West's goal be to create another "frozen conflict" like the ones Russia has established in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, etc?  

That would be a very bad outcome for Ukraine, but would it actually be a bad outcome for the West, as long as there's a viable Ukrainian state that still provides a buffer between Russia and NATO?  Is it possible that NATO's apparent bumbling is really just NATO's thoughtful analysis of what's necessary to prevent Russia from marching onto Vienna or Budapest or Warsaw?

I think some NATO countries would in fact be content with some kind of stalemate, and are becoming more willing to support a peace based upon the current map, which would of course reward Russian aggression.  I worry about statements Macron made about Russia's "legitimate security needs" for example.  So, yes, I think there are those who do not want either side to "win."

I think the most optimistic scenario is that the stalemate continues but Ukraine does well enough to continue to embarrass Putin, leading to his internal removal.  Russia would not "lose" but could extricate itself from Ukraine by throwing Vlad under the bus.  I'm not sure that is likely, however.  Hard to know which side is favored if the war drags on.  Putin thinks he is, that the West will inevitably grow impatient and the Ukrainian people grow cold.