[Goose]

I just saw a story that said Russia will be pretty much out of ammunition in early 2023, so good luck keeping whatever minimal territory it captures, while Ukraine re-captures more and more.

We keep seeing these stories, but they are either total nonsense or based on estimates we have no way of verifying. Russia isn't going to "run out" of 152 mm ammunition for YEARS. I have put out the known facts on this several times. What is however true is that much of this ammunition will be well past it's "use by" date, which will affect it's accuracy and safety considerably. Russia may run out/has run out of 122 mm ammunition because not nearly as much of it was made. Russia is also manufacturing new ammunition of both types, but not close to as much as they are using. We don't know if/when other facilities in Russia will come online making this stuff.

Missiles of all types are a different story, but we don't actually know what the "bottom line" on any of it is. Russia is clearly hurting in this area, yet despite sanctions they seem to be building Kalibr and KH-101 missiles in tactically significant numbers. We don't actually know how many of these missiles they had at the start of the war, and we also aren't sure how many they have used. We don't know how many they are manufacturing per month. Clearly our original estimates of single digits are questionable at this point. We also don't know if they are using strategic stockpiles of ICs to continue manufacturing, or if they have found pipelines around the sanctions. In the past they have been very good at this. We also don't know how many missiles they must hold back to ensure the rest of their defense force isn't naked.

In short, it is very hard to know what Russia's supply situation actually is. Relying on the fact they are going to run out is a very bad idea, as experience in this war has already shown.

[Goose]

I just saw a story that said Russia will be pretty much out of ammunition in early 2023, so good luck keeping whatever minimal territory it captures, while Ukraine re-captures more and more.

We keep seeing these stories, but they are either total nonsense or based on estimates we have no way of verifying. Russia isn't going to "run out" of 152 mm ammunition for YEARS. I have put out the known facts on this several times. What is however true is that much of this ammunition will be well past it's "use by" date, which will affect it's accuracy and safety considerably. Russia may run out/has run out of 122 mm ammunition because not nearly as much of it was made. Russia is also manufacturing new ammunition of both types, but not close to as much as they are using. We don't know if/when other facilities in Russia will come online making this stuff.

Missiles of all types are a different story, but we don't actually know what the "bottom line" on any of it is. Russia is clearly hurting in this area, yet despite sanctions they seem to be building Kalibr and KH-101 missiles in tactically significant numbers. We don't actually know how many of these missiles they had at the start of the war, and we also aren't sure how many they have used. We don't know how many they are manufacturing per month. Clearly our original estimates of single digits are questionable at this point. We also don't know if they are using strategic stockpiles of ICs to continue manufacturing, or if they have found pipelines around the sanctions. In the past they have been very good at this. We also don't know how many missiles they must hold back to ensure the rest of their defense force isn't naked.

In short, it is very hard to know what Russia's supply situation actually is. Relying on the fact they are going to run out is a very bad idea, as experience in this war has already shown.