[M T]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-air...36767.html

These attacks are extraordinarily important because Melitopol is on the M-14 and a major chokepoint in the Russian "Land Corridor" to Crimea. Ukraine needs to break that connection somewhere between Mariupol and Melitopol. Obviously, taking back Melitopol would do that. Having Melitopol under HIMARS range is almost as good, as the strangulation of Kherson demonstrated. Russia's GLOC to Crimea is therefore already within the HIMARS attack envelope. If Ukraine can get it within the M777 envelope, they can close off the GLOC. Himars can make it costly and intermittent. M777s can close it. Russia doesn't appear to have the forces in place to counterattack this thrust. Their hold on Zaporizhia Oblast seems a bit tenuous at the moment. If Russia fails here, Crimea is in real trouble. The bridge and ferries can keep them going, but the civilian population won't much like it. A disruption of the SLOCs to Crimea coupled with cutting the GLOC would be another major Russian defeat. Let's hope it happens.

The hotel/restaurant that was hit is apparently "Привал охотника, Interkulturna Street 2/19 Melitopol, Запорожье, Ukraine, 72300" (Hunter's Halt).  There were reportedly two other targets hit at about the same time, one about 20km  north of Melitopol, and some tracking radar.  

My question is what missiles were fired from where.  The closest Ukrainian-held territory is about 85km to the NNW on the north shore of the Dnipro.  The HIMARS are range-limited to less than 50 miles (80.5 km).   I saw another report suggesting they were Turkish TRLG-230 missiles, but their maximum range is 70 km.

If the Ukrainians had crossed the Dnipro to fire these missiles (or fired them from a boat), this seems like a very risky move with a precious resource, as they couldn't get far from where they were fired.

Something doesn't add up.

(The Ukrainian exiled mayor of Melitopol said dozens dead, 200 injured, which is less than earlier reports said.)

I would have thought the M-18 is the major highway for supplies to get to Crimea. It stays about 120 km from the north/west side of the Dnipro.

[M T]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukrainian-air...36767.html

These attacks are extraordinarily important because Melitopol is on the M-14 and a major chokepoint in the Russian "Land Corridor" to Crimea. Ukraine needs to break that connection somewhere between Mariupol and Melitopol. Obviously, taking back Melitopol would do that. Having Melitopol under HIMARS range is almost as good, as the strangulation of Kherson demonstrated. Russia's GLOC to Crimea is therefore already within the HIMARS attack envelope. If Ukraine can get it within the M777 envelope, they can close off the GLOC. Himars can make it costly and intermittent. M777s can close it. Russia doesn't appear to have the forces in place to counterattack this thrust. Their hold on Zaporizhia Oblast seems a bit tenuous at the moment. If Russia fails here, Crimea is in real trouble. The bridge and ferries can keep them going, but the civilian population won't much like it. A disruption of the SLOCs to Crimea coupled with cutting the GLOC would be another major Russian defeat. Let's hope it happens.

The hotel/restaurant that was hit is apparently "Привал охотника, Interkulturna Street 2/19 Melitopol, Запорожье, Ukraine, 72300" (Hunter's Halt).  There were reportedly two other targets hit at about the same time, one about 20km  north of Melitopol, and some tracking radar.  

My question is what missiles were fired from where.  The closest Ukrainian-held territory is about 85km to the NNW on the north shore of the Dnipro.  The HIMARS are range-limited to less than 50 miles (80.5 km).   I saw another report suggesting they were Turkish TRLG-230 missiles, but their maximum range is 70 km.

If the Ukrainians had crossed the Dnipro to fire these missiles (or fired them from a boat), this seems like a very risky move with a precious resource, as they couldn't get far from where they were fired.

Something doesn't add up.

(The Ukrainian exiled mayor of Melitopol said dozens dead, 200 injured, which is less than earlier reports said.)

I would have thought the M-18 is the major highway for supplies to get to Crimea. It stays about 120 km from the north/west side of the Dnipro.