[Goose]

The two “world wars” lasted multiple years. This one-theater war hasn’t lasted a year yet. I guess the US didn’t think Russia could last this long without winning.

As to what the politicians thought, I have no idea. The military/intelligence community more thought Ukraine couldn't last this long without losing. There was never any real question that Russia was physically capable of undertaking a fairly long war. There were questions about what might happen internally and their will to do so. There still are.

Would the US be able to spin up production of ammo if we were dragged into this, especially if China was another front?  I’m not in position to know but I am worried we wouldn’t be.

The US has a long history of being slow to ramp up production before a war starts and immediately after. In the past we were very good at converting our civilian industrial base to military use. What the military has worried about for years is that they would get beat before that happened. IMO we actually have worse problems than that today. Our civilian manufacturing capability has greatly eroded over the past 60 or so years. We simply don't have the civilian industrial base to convert.

The second and possibly more serious problem is that the consolidation of the defense industry into a small number of very, very large companies has created so much inertia and delay in every endeavor that NOTHING can happen quickly. There are too many layers of management for that to be possible. The pentagon has created a mirror image of itself in the industrial sector. In the 1970s and 1980s there were over 100 companies in the Bay Area involved in electronic warfare. Now there is Lockheed, Raytheon and ? In an emergency situation, there are very few choices.

Thinking of Russia’s invasion as a parallel to the start of WWII is sobering. Thinking that the bravery & resilience of Ukraine might have stopped a much bigger war is a bright hope.

Indeed. Now we in the US and the EU just have to make sure that effort by Ukraine isn't wasted by our inability to find a way to hurt Russia enough to make them stop. Right now, it isn't clear to me we have a method in place that can work fast enough to keep Ukraine in the game.

[Goose]

The two “world wars” lasted multiple years. This one-theater war hasn’t lasted a year yet. I guess the US didn’t think Russia could last this long without winning.

As to what the politicians thought, I have no idea. The military/intelligence community more thought Ukraine couldn't last this long without losing. There was never any real question that Russia was physically capable of undertaking a fairly long war. There were questions about what might happen internally and their will to do so. There still are.

Would the US be able to spin up production of ammo if we were dragged into this, especially if China was another front?  I’m not in position to know but I am worried we wouldn’t be.

The US has a long history of being slow to ramp up production before a war starts and immediately after. In the past we were very good at converting our civilian industrial base to military use. What the military has worried about for years is that they would get beat before that happened. IMO we actually have worse problems than that today. Our civilian manufacturing capability has greatly eroded over the past 60 or so years. We simply don't have the civilian industrial base to convert.

The second and possibly more serious problem is that the consolidation of the defense industry into a small number of very, very large companies has created so much inertia and delay in every endeavor that NOTHING can happen quickly. There are too many layers of management for that to be possible. The pentagon has created a mirror image of itself in the industrial sector. In the 1970s and 1980s there were over 100 companies in the Bay Area involved in electronic warfare. Now there is Lockheed, Raytheon and ? In an emergency situation, there are very few choices.

Thinking of Russia’s invasion as a parallel to the start of WWII is sobering. Thinking that the bravery & resilience of Ukraine might have stopped a much bigger war is a bright hope.

Indeed. Now we in the US and the EU just have to make sure that effort by Ukraine isn't wasted by our inability to find a way to hurt Russia enough to make them stop. Right now, it isn't clear to me we have a method in place that can work fast enough to keep Ukraine in the game.