[Goose]

A lot of twitter activity about Ukraine trying to seize the Kinburn peninsula on the left bank of the river. 
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk...eper-river

If successful that would give UAF a foothold on the other side of the river. It doesn't sound like great terrain for an armored thrust (mostly salt marsh, few roads), but if they can break out of the peninsula, I wonder if they could secure a riverhead from the south which would allow a greater part of the force to cross in the Kherson area.

This is probably not their intention. There are no good roads from the peninsula and it is too far away to support a crossing near Kherson. The big value of this territory to Russia is that it allows them to engage ships that are going to/from Mykolaiv and thereby close the port. Clearing that peninsula make it at least possible to use the port of Mykolaiv without getting shot at. This will help relieve congestion in the port of Odessa. There probably aren't many Russians there and it will be a hard place to hold for them. Ukraine will probably get it pretty cheap.

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/kinburn-spit-...00173.html talks about this issue. I think this article covers all the bases. Being outside the Russian artillery envelope will indeed make taking this area much cheaper. Unfortunately advancing out of it would put the Ukrainians back under that envelope.


As most of you undoubtedly are aware, Russia has started shelling Kherson city from the left bank of the river. Ukraine needs to destroy the batteries involved in this activity. Lots of people were encouraged that Ukraine had recovered Kherson without it being destroyed. That may not be the case if Ukraine can't clear the artillery on the left bank. With their HIMARS they can do this without crossing the river.

[Goose]

A lot of twitter activity about Ukraine trying to seize the Kinburn peninsula on the left bank of the river. 
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk...eper-river

If successful that would give UAF a foothold on the other side of the river. It doesn't sound like great terrain for an armored thrust (mostly salt marsh, few roads), but if they can break out of the peninsula, I wonder if they could secure a riverhead from the south which would allow a greater part of the force to cross in the Kherson area.

This is probably not their intention. There are no good roads from the peninsula and it is too far away to support a crossing near Kherson. The big value of this territory to Russia is that it allows them to engage ships that are going to/from Mykolaiv and thereby close the port. Clearing that peninsula make it at least possible to use the port of Mykolaiv without getting shot at. This will help relieve congestion in the port of Odessa. There probably aren't many Russians there and it will be a hard place to hold for them. Ukraine will probably get it pretty cheap.

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/kinburn-spit-...00173.html talks about this issue. I think this article covers all the bases. Being outside the Russian artillery envelope will indeed make taking this area much cheaper. Unfortunately advancing out of it would put the Ukrainians back under that envelope.


As most of you undoubtedly are aware, Russia has started shelling Kherson city from the left bank of the river. Ukraine needs to destroy the batteries involved in this activity. Lots of people were encouraged that Ukraine had recovered Kherson without it being destroyed. That may not be the case if Ukraine can't clear the artillery on the left bank. With their HIMARS they can do this without crossing the river.