[gocard14]

Russian oligarchs don't seem to be faring too well currently:

How ruthless Russian oligarchs are ‘MURDERING each other’ in bloody battle for power in Putin’s ‘viper’s nest’ 

Meanwhile, Russian war crimes in Crimea (and elsewhere) are beyond the pale, almost requiring a new definition:

https://news.yahoo.com/rupture-could-tri...08812.html

I really like this article. It presents some different points of view, but a couple of quotes stand out to me:

“Russia has also been heavily dug into eastern Ukraine for eight years,” he adds. “So it would actually be easier to militarily retake Crimea than the Donbas.”

There are other geographic factors that favor the south over the Donbas. The entire Donbas borders Russia and therefore there are many ways in and out for Russian supply lines and troops. Crimea is bordered mostly by water. The coast of Ukraine up to Mariupol is the same way. Ukraine has many ways in to that territory, Russia only a few, by sea or the Kerch bridge. What happens in Kherson Oblast and north towards Mariupol is IMHO where the Ukrainians have the best chance of success this winter.

"Most important, Russians don’t care about losses, and they still have a lot of air power and other dirty tricks to terrorize Ukraine beyond bombs and missiles. Too many people have a hard time accepting those realities.”

Ukraine is a long way from victory. Russia isn't close to "done". As long as Putin is there, he now must continue this war. as the article also said:

“Putin is being beaten by what’s become the most powerful army in Europe,” Yakovleff says. “If Putin survives, he would be the only Russian leader to survive a defeat of this magnitude.”

I am convinced, as I think many others are, that Putin can't survive what is going on in Ukraine if Ukraine continues to make progress militarily. He will have to be removed, and that isn't going to be easy.

Ukraine also seems to have had a lot of success interdicting the sea and effectively neutralizing the Black Sea fleet. If they could effectively cut off crimea by land it could put the peninsula in a pretty untenable situation. It also puts a lot more pressure on Russia politically to threaten Crimea then the Donbas

[gocard14]

Russian oligarchs don't seem to be faring too well currently:

How ruthless Russian oligarchs are ‘MURDERING each other’ in bloody battle for power in Putin’s ‘viper’s nest’ 

Meanwhile, Russian war crimes in Crimea (and elsewhere) are beyond the pale, almost requiring a new definition:

https://news.yahoo.com/rupture-could-tri...08812.html

I really like this article. It presents some different points of view, but a couple of quotes stand out to me:

“Russia has also been heavily dug into eastern Ukraine for eight years,” he adds. “So it would actually be easier to militarily retake Crimea than the Donbas.”

There are other geographic factors that favor the south over the Donbas. The entire Donbas borders Russia and therefore there are many ways in and out for Russian supply lines and troops. Crimea is bordered mostly by water. The coast of Ukraine up to Mariupol is the same way. Ukraine has many ways in to that territory, Russia only a few, by sea or the Kerch bridge. What happens in Kherson Oblast and north towards Mariupol is IMHO where the Ukrainians have the best chance of success this winter.

"Most important, Russians don’t care about losses, and they still have a lot of air power and other dirty tricks to terrorize Ukraine beyond bombs and missiles. Too many people have a hard time accepting those realities.”

Ukraine is a long way from victory. Russia isn't close to "done". As long as Putin is there, he now must continue this war. as the article also said:

“Putin is being beaten by what’s become the most powerful army in Europe,” Yakovleff says. “If Putin survives, he would be the only Russian leader to survive a defeat of this magnitude.”

I am convinced, as I think many others are, that Putin can't survive what is going on in Ukraine if Ukraine continues to make progress militarily. He will have to be removed, and that isn't going to be easy.

Ukraine also seems to have had a lot of success interdicting the sea and effectively neutralizing the Black Sea fleet. If they could effectively cut off crimea by land it could put the peninsula in a pretty untenable situation. It also puts a lot more pressure on Russia politically to threaten Crimea then the Donbas