[Goose]

The fact Ukraine did not press and disrupt the Russian retreat from the west bank is now a major liability. Russia attempted to hold the right bank earlier in the year and transferred significant strength to the Kherson Oblast and Crimea. This created a weakness in the north that Ukraine detected and exploited very competently. Russia gave up a lot of territory and suffered significant losses. On top of that, the reinforcements in the south were inadequate to reverse the horrible tactical situation the Russians found themselves in. They finally were forced to do the right thing and evacuate their untenable positions on the right bank.

While it is totally reasonable to believe Ukraine could not move aggressively enough and rapidly enough to encircle and cut off the Russian retreat, it is difficult to believe they were unable to significantly disrupt that retreat. The hope was they could press the Russians, cause them significant losses, and get across the river right on the Russian's heels. It is looking more and more like the Russians pulled it off quite successfully. The assets they extracted are going in to defensive lines along the left bank of the river, and some are going as far as Mariuopl. IMHO it is highly improbable that a Ukrainian force that failed to drive the Russians while they retreated is now going to conduct an opposed river crossing against a prepared defense that is relatively well supplied. That is much more difficult and risky than pursuing a fleeing enemy.

The Russians have done what militarily was advisable months ago, namely shortening their line to one they think they can defend. The Dnipro river is a significant obstacle to the Ukrainian advance in the south that will aid the Russian defense. In the north, Ukraine and Russia are fighting around Svatove and Kreminna. Ukraine is making slow progress there but neither side has a clear-cut tactical advantage. It appears that, for the moment at least, Russia has a line it can defend.

Unfortunately, both Russia and Ukraine seem to be operating in the hope the other side will quit first. Neither side has an obvious way ahead. This is a recipe for stalemate, which I think Ukraine really wants to avoid. Politically, as others have pointed out, this creates a lot of pressure to find a political settlement. IMHO no viable political settlement exists unless Russia is defeated and accepts responsibility for this war. Otherwise, it is just a "truce". Ukraine won't accept the loss of territory along the current lines. They will try to keep fighting, but to do so they need reliable support from the international community. Really too bad Ukraine isn't across the river.

[Goose]

The fact Ukraine did not press and disrupt the Russian retreat from the west bank is now a major liability. Russia attempted to hold the right bank earlier in the year and transferred significant strength to the Kherson Oblast and Crimea. This created a weakness in the north that Ukraine detected and exploited very competently. Russia gave up a lot of territory and suffered significant losses. On top of that, the reinforcements in the south were inadequate to reverse the horrible tactical situation the Russians found themselves in. They finally were forced to do the right thing and evacuate their untenable positions on the right bank.

While it is totally reasonable to believe Ukraine could not move aggressively enough and rapidly enough to encircle and cut off the Russian retreat, it is difficult to believe they were unable to significantly disrupt that retreat. The hope was they could press the Russians, cause them significant losses, and get across the river right on the Russian's heels. It is looking more and more like the Russians pulled it off quite successfully. The assets they extracted are going in to defensive lines along the left bank of the river, and some are going as far as Mariuopl. IMHO it is highly improbable that a Ukrainian force that failed to drive the Russians while they retreated is now going to conduct an opposed river crossing against a prepared defense that is relatively well supplied. That is much more difficult and risky than pursuing a fleeing enemy.

The Russians have done what militarily was advisable months ago, namely shortening their line to one they think they can defend. The Dnipro river is a significant obstacle to the Ukrainian advance in the south that will aid the Russian defense. In the north, Ukraine and Russia are fighting around Svatove and Kreminna. Ukraine is making slow progress there but neither side has a clear-cut tactical advantage. It appears that, for the moment at least, Russia has a line it can defend.

Unfortunately, both Russia and Ukraine seem to be operating in the hope the other side will quit first. Neither side has an obvious way ahead. This is a recipe for stalemate, which I think Ukraine really wants to avoid. Politically, as others have pointed out, this creates a lot of pressure to find a political settlement. IMHO no viable political settlement exists unless Russia is defeated and accepts responsibility for this war. Otherwise, it is just a "truce". Ukraine won't accept the loss of territory along the current lines. They will try to keep fighting, but to do so they need reliable support from the international community. Really too bad Ukraine isn't across the river.