[Goose]

Sounds a bit like the problem that the US encountered with IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The problem was that by the time the explosive was detonated, the people who planted it were long gone.

The solution was to use satellite data and run it “backwards” in time. Once they got to when the IEDs were placed, they followed the insurgents forwards to where they went after they planted the bombs and then targeted that house.

The Russians should be able to find where Ukrainians are hiding the HIMARS in the same way. Follow the missile backwards to its source, then follow the HIMARS truck forward to wherever it is kept between missiles and hit that location.

I’d link the story, but I forgot what podcast I heard it in.

BC

It is indeed a similar problem. I don't believe the Russian satellite optics are quite good enough to do that. It can resolve the HIMARS trucks themselves, but it can't see the missiles. Following them back to the source would be difficult for that reason. The weather in Ukraine isn't as cooperative as in the desert either. Cloud cover makes this difficult. Ukraine is also, as I understand it, being careful to not return to previously used locations on any regular pattern, so even if one knows the locations where the HIMARS might be spending the night, doing maintenance, or even reloading between strikes, on any given day/time it probably isn't there :-). You would have to do this process in near real time, which I am sure would not be easy. Even the US does not have full time high resolution imagery available for arbitrary areas in Ukraine 24/7. This constant motion is also oriented to defeat drone and HUMINT reconnaissance which are I think more "real" problems in Ukraine.

[Goose]

Sounds a bit like the problem that the US encountered with IEDs in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The problem was that by the time the explosive was detonated, the people who planted it were long gone.

The solution was to use satellite data and run it “backwards” in time. Once they got to when the IEDs were placed, they followed the insurgents forwards to where they went after they planted the bombs and then targeted that house.

The Russians should be able to find where Ukrainians are hiding the HIMARS in the same way. Follow the missile backwards to its source, then follow the HIMARS truck forward to wherever it is kept between missiles and hit that location.

I’d link the story, but I forgot what podcast I heard it in.

BC

It is indeed a similar problem. I don't believe the Russian satellite optics are quite good enough to do that. It can resolve the HIMARS trucks themselves, but it can't see the missiles. Following them back to the source would be difficult for that reason. The weather in Ukraine isn't as cooperative as in the desert either. Cloud cover makes this difficult. Ukraine is also, as I understand it, being careful to not return to previously used locations on any regular pattern, so even if one knows the locations where the HIMARS might be spending the night, doing maintenance, or even reloading between strikes, on any given day/time it probably isn't there :-). You would have to do this process in near real time, which I am sure would not be easy. Even the US does not have full time high resolution imagery available for arbitrary areas in Ukraine 24/7. This constant motion is also oriented to defeat drone and HUMINT reconnaissance which are I think more "real" problems in Ukraine.