11-02-2022, 05:15 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2022, 05:15 AM by OutsiderFan.)
Do any of you watch "Joe Blogs" on YouTube?
His latest video about the bottom falling out of Russian oil and gas revenues demonstrates Russia is being put in quite a vice economically, with fundamental realities set to crush its economy in a way you'd think would make it impossible to wage war.
The EU ban on Russian oil imports starts Dec. 5 and the G7 is close to setting a cap on Russian oil to be shipped in insured vessels to $63/barrel. This would give Russia enough profit to keep producing, but not enough to do much else, like fund war activities. Russia will claim it will shut down all oil production - yet another bluff and lie - to try scaring the world into loosening the vice Russia is in. The reality is they must continue finding places to send the oil or it will be backed up with inventory it might not be able to store, and they don't want to shut wells down because the cost of capping and starting them up is prohibitive. So Russia can whine all it wants, but it will have no choice but to sell at subsistence prices.
It sucks to see the west and NATO not step up efforts to go after Russia in Ukraine, but it seems the calculus from these governments is to slowly starve Russia of its ability to fund war or function domestically by significantly limiting its oil and gas revenue potential, given Ukraine is willing to fight like it is. It seems on the precipice of working very soon, like 2023 is going to be a really, really painful for Russians. Hard to imagine Putin surviving after losing a war that kills tens of thousands, sends the best minds out of the country, ages the population, and completely obliterates the Russian economy to the degree he will have done.
His latest video about the bottom falling out of Russian oil and gas revenues demonstrates Russia is being put in quite a vice economically, with fundamental realities set to crush its economy in a way you'd think would make it impossible to wage war.
The EU ban on Russian oil imports starts Dec. 5 and the G7 is close to setting a cap on Russian oil to be shipped in insured vessels to $63/barrel. This would give Russia enough profit to keep producing, but not enough to do much else, like fund war activities. Russia will claim it will shut down all oil production - yet another bluff and lie - to try scaring the world into loosening the vice Russia is in. The reality is they must continue finding places to send the oil or it will be backed up with inventory it might not be able to store, and they don't want to shut wells down because the cost of capping and starting them up is prohibitive. So Russia can whine all it wants, but it will have no choice but to sell at subsistence prices.
It sucks to see the west and NATO not step up efforts to go after Russia in Ukraine, but it seems the calculus from these governments is to slowly starve Russia of its ability to fund war or function domestically by significantly limiting its oil and gas revenue potential, given Ukraine is willing to fight like it is. It seems on the precipice of working very soon, like 2023 is going to be a really, really painful for Russians. Hard to imagine Putin surviving after losing a war that kills tens of thousands, sends the best minds out of the country, ages the population, and completely obliterates the Russian economy to the degree he will have done.