[Goose]

Very much agree, but something isn't "right" here. If the Russian supply situation is so bad, why has the number of outgoing artillery shells from the Russians been increasing, not decreasing? The Russians have moved many conscripts onto the right bank. Why do that if you can't supply them? The Russians did supposedly "evacuate" the civilians, which would somewhat ease the supply situation, but that doesn't increase the supply of military items, like ammunition. It could be that the Russians are just clueless (and/or desperate), but for some reason I doubt that. Something isn't adding up here. It may be those pontoon bridges are working a bit too well.

The answer may be simple.  The Germans wanted to retreat to a more defensible position, but were not allowed to do so for political reasons since Stalingrad had become such an important symbol for Hitler's advance.

Losing Kherson could be politically devastating to Putin--after all the incompetence of this war has become apparent despite the domestic propaganda.  The decision to remain could be based on Putin's assessment of political risks rather than military risks.  And given that the Russians will remain, I am sure that the commanders will make the best of it.  It will be up to Ukraine to exploit this decision and genuinely turn it into another Stalingrad.  If they can, it could be the turning point of the war, given how many eggs Putin has put in the Kherson basket.

Certainly possible. It is also probable that Russia is hoping the river freezes and gives them a way to easily supply the right bank. They may have to hold on for two months for that to happen (if it does). However, the increase in outgoing fire all along the front is disturbing. Obviously this hasn't been rigorously evaluated in public, but in as far as it is true, it increases Putin's odds.

It is wise to look at the forces Russia has on the west bank. While they are considerable, their loss doesn't of itself threaten the loss of the rest of Kherson Oblast. Russia is building defensive lines on the east bank and deeper into the Oblast. Ideally, Ukraine needs to wrong-foot them with a rapid offensive that cuts off a lot of the Russian forces. If they have to fight all the Russians in the Oblast, it is going to be long and bloody. Destroying many of them by surrounding them (as Von Paulus was) and NOT fighting them is lots better. So far, Ukraine hasn't been able to do that.

[Goose]

Very much agree, but something isn't "right" here. If the Russian supply situation is so bad, why has the number of outgoing artillery shells from the Russians been increasing, not decreasing? The Russians have moved many conscripts onto the right bank. Why do that if you can't supply them? The Russians did supposedly "evacuate" the civilians, which would somewhat ease the supply situation, but that doesn't increase the supply of military items, like ammunition. It could be that the Russians are just clueless (and/or desperate), but for some reason I doubt that. Something isn't adding up here. It may be those pontoon bridges are working a bit too well.

The answer may be simple.  The Germans wanted to retreat to a more defensible position, but were not allowed to do so for political reasons since Stalingrad had become such an important symbol for Hitler's advance.

Losing Kherson could be politically devastating to Putin--after all the incompetence of this war has become apparent despite the domestic propaganda.  The decision to remain could be based on Putin's assessment of political risks rather than military risks.  And given that the Russians will remain, I am sure that the commanders will make the best of it.  It will be up to Ukraine to exploit this decision and genuinely turn it into another Stalingrad.  If they can, it could be the turning point of the war, given how many eggs Putin has put in the Kherson basket.

Certainly possible. It is also probable that Russia is hoping the river freezes and gives them a way to easily supply the right bank. They may have to hold on for two months for that to happen (if it does). However, the increase in outgoing fire all along the front is disturbing. Obviously this hasn't been rigorously evaluated in public, but in as far as it is true, it increases Putin's odds.

It is wise to look at the forces Russia has on the west bank. While they are considerable, their loss doesn't of itself threaten the loss of the rest of Kherson Oblast. Russia is building defensive lines on the east bank and deeper into the Oblast. Ideally, Ukraine needs to wrong-foot them with a rapid offensive that cuts off a lot of the Russian forces. If they have to fight all the Russians in the Oblast, it is going to be long and bloody. Destroying many of them by surrounding them (as Von Paulus was) and NOT fighting them is lots better. So far, Ukraine hasn't been able to do that.