[GK3]

While it will rain in Kherson on Wednesday, the following 10 days look to be free of rain and not too cold. Ukraine is getting a break here. It is giving them the opportunity to advance before it gets muddy, wet, and cold. When the rain really gets going, moving material and people will become more difficult. Then Winter sets in. Literally, Ukraine needs to make hay while the sun shines.

On a different topic, I think that the "leadership" (such as it may be) in all the NATO countries have to take great pains to make utterly clear to their populations what the consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine would be. Had Ukraine quickly caved in to Russia, it would have been horrible for Ukraine. It would have also raised serious questions about NATO's ability to deter Russian aggression. This would have been very "bad". That didn't happen.

However, Ukraine did fight back (bravely and successfully in many cases) and "the west", NATO, did step up to help Ukraine. In so doing, that greatly "upped the ante" on the outcome of this war. If, at this point, Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, despite all the effort, suffering, and pain Ukraine has endured, and despite the efforts of NATO, the message will be clear. NATO cannot deter Russia and doesn't have the will to defeat them. Some may say NATO wasn't directly involved, but that is a difference without a distinction. Every one of the ex Warsaw Pact countries will feel threatened, and may seek accommodation with Russia. They will have no confidence that Article 5 will protect them. China will see this as proof aggression works and Taiwan will receive it sooner rather than later. All the weaknesses exposed in the Russian military won't matter. "Just win baby".

The time to decide whether to help Ukraine was back on Feb 24. That decision has been made. Backing away from it would be an unmitigated disaster for the US, NATO and probably the world at large (and Ukraine, but that isn't the point). You can appease a Dictator and survive it (Czechoslovakia in 1938). It may not be a good idea, but you can do it. NATO decided not to do it. The die is cast. We have to "win" this one, and backing away is no longer an option.

You can't say it better than you said it in your last paragraph.  Copy should be sent to all Heads of State in NATO countries.  Eureopean Countries, particularly those who were in the old Soviet Bloc don't need to be reminded too much about how things would be with Russia back in control.  I think you can put Finland in that group for sure.  Turkey is an enigma.  Country finds itself on the far edge of NATO Europe with the nut cases of the Middle East and former Soviet block countries to the North East as its neighbors.  Trying to keep everyone happy is not always the best policy.

[GK3]

While it will rain in Kherson on Wednesday, the following 10 days look to be free of rain and not too cold. Ukraine is getting a break here. It is giving them the opportunity to advance before it gets muddy, wet, and cold. When the rain really gets going, moving material and people will become more difficult. Then Winter sets in. Literally, Ukraine needs to make hay while the sun shines.

On a different topic, I think that the "leadership" (such as it may be) in all the NATO countries have to take great pains to make utterly clear to their populations what the consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine would be. Had Ukraine quickly caved in to Russia, it would have been horrible for Ukraine. It would have also raised serious questions about NATO's ability to deter Russian aggression. This would have been very "bad". That didn't happen.

However, Ukraine did fight back (bravely and successfully in many cases) and "the west", NATO, did step up to help Ukraine. In so doing, that greatly "upped the ante" on the outcome of this war. If, at this point, Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, despite all the effort, suffering, and pain Ukraine has endured, and despite the efforts of NATO, the message will be clear. NATO cannot deter Russia and doesn't have the will to defeat them. Some may say NATO wasn't directly involved, but that is a difference without a distinction. Every one of the ex Warsaw Pact countries will feel threatened, and may seek accommodation with Russia. They will have no confidence that Article 5 will protect them. China will see this as proof aggression works and Taiwan will receive it sooner rather than later. All the weaknesses exposed in the Russian military won't matter. "Just win baby".

The time to decide whether to help Ukraine was back on Feb 24. That decision has been made. Backing away from it would be an unmitigated disaster for the US, NATO and probably the world at large (and Ukraine, but that isn't the point). You can appease a Dictator and survive it (Czechoslovakia in 1938). It may not be a good idea, but you can do it. NATO decided not to do it. The die is cast. We have to "win" this one, and backing away is no longer an option.

You can't say it better than you said it in your last paragraph.  Copy should be sent to all Heads of State in NATO countries.  Eureopean Countries, particularly those who were in the old Soviet Bloc don't need to be reminded too much about how things would be with Russia back in control.  I think you can put Finland in that group for sure.  Turkey is an enigma.  Country finds itself on the far edge of NATO Europe with the nut cases of the Middle East and former Soviet block countries to the North East as its neighbors.  Trying to keep everyone happy is not always the best policy.