[Goose]

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status...4cUkxUffJQ

This seems like it would be bad.

BC

Indeed it will be, if they do it. As I previously posted, the NATO countries have to make it clear to Putin that such an action would be equivalent to using a tactical nuclear weapon and will be treated as such. It will flood the city of Kherson, apparently. It will also turn the river area into a swamp, at least for many months, as well as destroying several smaller towns downstream from Kherson. It isn't a total win for Russia because it compromises the water supply to Crimea, but I guess they may figure that is a lost cause already. If Russia does this and gets away with it (no retaliation by NATO), Ukraine will be in a difficult position. The ability to retake the rest of the Oblast and threaten Crimea will be gone. Their 3rd largest city will be under water. The ship building and related industries will be pretty much destroyed. It will take the pressure of the Russian forces in the area and render them essentially invulnerable. This is obviously the opposite of Ukraine's intentions.

There are reports that Russia is releasing some water from the dam at present, which is being turned into a big deal by some on the internet. It probably isn't. This time of year it is prudent to have extra storage capacity for the rain that is now falling upriver and locally. One might think if they intend to blow the dam, doing this would make no sense, but maybe they are just following the SOP.

[Goose]

https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status...4cUkxUffJQ

This seems like it would be bad.

BC

Indeed it will be, if they do it. As I previously posted, the NATO countries have to make it clear to Putin that such an action would be equivalent to using a tactical nuclear weapon and will be treated as such. It will flood the city of Kherson, apparently. It will also turn the river area into a swamp, at least for many months, as well as destroying several smaller towns downstream from Kherson. It isn't a total win for Russia because it compromises the water supply to Crimea, but I guess they may figure that is a lost cause already. If Russia does this and gets away with it (no retaliation by NATO), Ukraine will be in a difficult position. The ability to retake the rest of the Oblast and threaten Crimea will be gone. Their 3rd largest city will be under water. The ship building and related industries will be pretty much destroyed. It will take the pressure of the Russian forces in the area and render them essentially invulnerable. This is obviously the opposite of Ukraine's intentions.

There are reports that Russia is releasing some water from the dam at present, which is being turned into a big deal by some on the internet. It probably isn't. This time of year it is prudent to have extra storage capacity for the rain that is now falling upriver and locally. One might think if they intend to blow the dam, doing this would make no sense, but maybe they are just following the SOP.