[Treefence]

I'm note quite ready to jump the conclusion this Tweeter has, but we really might be seeing Russians evacuating Kherson proper, and all of the North/West bank of the Dnipro river. In previous withdrawals, Russians haven't had such a tough escape route, I really hope this turns into a complete Russian failure, but time will tell.  

url=https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g]https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g

I really hope they don't evacuate. If they do evacuate, I hope Ukraine jumps the river and cuts their line of retreat. Russia has made lots of mistakes in Kherson. We really want Ukraine to make them pay for them. Russia has flirted with disaster in this are for a long time. If they get out without the disaster, that would be a big disappointment. It appears they are also pulling back around Nova Kakhovka.

At the end of the day, it appears probable Ukraine will own the right bank of the river no matter what happens. It would be "very nice" if Ukraine could significantly damage the Russian military as it retreats. They were in a position to do that. They have certainly done damage, but they are well short of "what could have been" at this point. If Russia is able to pull back without significant damage, it is imperative that Ukraine establish fairly deep bridgeheads on the left bank. Giving a mostly intact Russian military a quiet winter on the left bank of the river is a recipe for problems in the spring.

I definitely agree with you, it would be a big time missed opportunity if Ukraine doesn't make Russia pay for their failures in Kherson.  They could potentially capture thousands of Russians, kill thousands of Russians, a mixture of both, not push them out of Kherson, or let them off the hook.  My guess is that a group of Russians are captured, but less than a thousand, but many are killed. I also think Russia blows all the bridges completely, and ends up leaving a bunch of heavy equipment.  

While it would be a missed opportunity, it's still an extremely significant and strategic victory, to be able to reclaim the only regional capital they have lost in the Feb 24th Russian campaign, and liberate another 10k square kilometers. I think it would also give Ukraine the opportunity to move a bunch more people to the Zaporizhzhian front and potentially start an offensive there, and potentially push the Russians back to the Pre Feb 24th boundaries. Granted Russia will also have a bunch more troops to spread around, but I think they lose significantly more men and equipment than Ukraine from the Kherson withdrawal.  I also wonder if losing Kherson could also lead much more questioning of Putin back in Russia, because this would be after their mobilization, and they can't pretend Kherson proper wasn't part the part they annexed. 

All that to say, despite it potentially being a missed opportunity, I think it'll still be a great victory for Ukraine and a brobdingnagian boost of morale going into winter.

[Treefence]

I'm note quite ready to jump the conclusion this Tweeter has, but we really might be seeing Russians evacuating Kherson proper, and all of the North/West bank of the Dnipro river. In previous withdrawals, Russians haven't had such a tough escape route, I really hope this turns into a complete Russian failure, but time will tell.  

url=https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g]https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g

I really hope they don't evacuate. If they do evacuate, I hope Ukraine jumps the river and cuts their line of retreat. Russia has made lots of mistakes in Kherson. We really want Ukraine to make them pay for them. Russia has flirted with disaster in this are for a long time. If they get out without the disaster, that would be a big disappointment. It appears they are also pulling back around Nova Kakhovka.

At the end of the day, it appears probable Ukraine will own the right bank of the river no matter what happens. It would be "very nice" if Ukraine could significantly damage the Russian military as it retreats. They were in a position to do that. They have certainly done damage, but they are well short of "what could have been" at this point. If Russia is able to pull back without significant damage, it is imperative that Ukraine establish fairly deep bridgeheads on the left bank. Giving a mostly intact Russian military a quiet winter on the left bank of the river is a recipe for problems in the spring.

I definitely agree with you, it would be a big time missed opportunity if Ukraine doesn't make Russia pay for their failures in Kherson.  They could potentially capture thousands of Russians, kill thousands of Russians, a mixture of both, not push them out of Kherson, or let them off the hook.  My guess is that a group of Russians are captured, but less than a thousand, but many are killed. I also think Russia blows all the bridges completely, and ends up leaving a bunch of heavy equipment.  

While it would be a missed opportunity, it's still an extremely significant and strategic victory, to be able to reclaim the only regional capital they have lost in the Feb 24th Russian campaign, and liberate another 10k square kilometers. I think it would also give Ukraine the opportunity to move a bunch more people to the Zaporizhzhian front and potentially start an offensive there, and potentially push the Russians back to the Pre Feb 24th boundaries. Granted Russia will also have a bunch more troops to spread around, but I think they lose significantly more men and equipment than Ukraine from the Kherson withdrawal.  I also wonder if losing Kherson could also lead much more questioning of Putin back in Russia, because this would be after their mobilization, and they can't pretend Kherson proper wasn't part the part they annexed. 

All that to say, despite it potentially being a missed opportunity, I think it'll still be a great victory for Ukraine and a brobdingnagian boost of morale going into winter.