[Goose]

Good thread on Belarus from a Belarusian journalist and why threat from there is likely overblown.



https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status...ip4BPjEuBg



LOL

It seems entirely reasonable the Russians would want to use the training ranges in Belarus. For quite a while the assessment by NATO has been that the Belarus army was equally likely to fight for Ukraine rather than against them if they had to choose. Their preference is to not fight at all. The political situation in Belarus is not stable. The self-declared president Lukashenko doesn't have great support and there might be a revolution if a war against Ukraine was declared.

At present, Russia probably has no plans to involve Belarus in actual fighting. That could change. Putin could at some point desire a wider war to allow him to declare full mobilization. One way to do that would be a provocation saying Ukraine attacked Belarus and Russia must honor it's treaty obligations to Belarus. Pretty desperate, but given his track record, not impossible. That really opens a can of worms that nobody knows how to control or predict.

[Goose]

Good thread on Belarus from a Belarusian journalist and why threat from there is likely overblown.



https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status...ip4BPjEuBg



LOL

It seems entirely reasonable the Russians would want to use the training ranges in Belarus. For quite a while the assessment by NATO has been that the Belarus army was equally likely to fight for Ukraine rather than against them if they had to choose. Their preference is to not fight at all. The political situation in Belarus is not stable. The self-declared president Lukashenko doesn't have great support and there might be a revolution if a war against Ukraine was declared.

At present, Russia probably has no plans to involve Belarus in actual fighting. That could change. Putin could at some point desire a wider war to allow him to declare full mobilization. One way to do that would be a provocation saying Ukraine attacked Belarus and Russia must honor it's treaty obligations to Belarus. Pretty desperate, but given his track record, not impossible. That really opens a can of worms that nobody knows how to control or predict.