[gocard14]

Also some crazy (alleged) footage of a soldier with a MANPAD shooting down an incoming cruise missle.  I didn't know that was even possible, but if so would have to assume it is the soldier rolling a natural 20 and being in the exact right place at the right time. 

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-...deo-russia

---

From what I gather, western economic sanctions have had the following effect:

1) Consumer and retail spending have dropped 20% in the last year.
2) There's been a mass exodus of 500k Russians to other countries, most of whom were highly skilled, educated workers.
3) There's been another mass exodus of young, Russian, conscript-age men to adjacent countries.
4) Auto sales have declined 95%.
5) Russian imports have dropped 50% from $8.1 billion in January 2022 to $3.8 billion in April 2022.
6) Between the invasion and July 31, Russian foreign exchange reserves plummeted by $75 billion. 
7) GDP is expected to drop by between 5.5% and 9%.
8) Inflation will hit 22% this year. Sectors dependent on international supply chains have increased inflation of 40% to 60%
9) Moscow's main stock index has dropped by more than 1/3rd.
10) Russia's "pivot to the East" is underway, not nearly complete. And China is buying at a $35 discount per barrel of oil.
11) Russian purchasing managers' index has dropped like a rock.
12) 1,000+ global companies representing 40% of Russian GDP have fled Russia.
13) 15,000+ Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) have fled Russia, representing 20% of all Russians worth $30 mms. or more.
14) Russian money supply has skyrocketed as they artificially stimulate the economy.
15) Small to mid-sized Russian businesses can't get credit.

Conclusions:
1) Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

2) Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy

3) Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst

4) As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneouscapitalandpopulationflightinamassexodusofRussia’seconomicbase

If you really want to know, here's 48 slides that were presented yesterday on how sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, sourced by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

Russian Economic Impact Slide Deck - August 2022 v6.pdf | Powered by Box

Other data above sourced by IMF, World Bank, U.S. State Department, OECD, and the YCELI.

Thanks for this. It does detail the significant effects of the sanctions. One would hope that at some point these effects would render the Russian state unable to function. Lets hope that point is reached soon!

I'm reminded of a section of one of my favorite books (the foundation series), where the protagonists' nation fights an enemy that is economically dependent on them.


"They’ll send their sons out in unlimited numbers to die horribly on broken spaceships.  They’ll bear up under enemy bombardment, (even) if it means that they have to live on stale bread and foul water in caves half a mile deep.  But it’s very hard to bear up under little things when the patriotic uplift of imminent danger is not present.  It’s going to be a stalemate.  There will be no (home front) casualties, no bombardments, no battles.  There will just be a knife that won’t cut, and a stove that won't cook, and a house that freezes in the winter.  It will be annoying and people will grumble.”

“I expect … a general background of grumbling and dissatisfaction which will be seized on by more important figures later on.  … The manufacturers, the factory owners, the industrialists of Korell. … the machines in the factories will one by one fail.  Those industries that we changed from first to last with our new atomic gadgets will find themselves very suddenly ruined. … at a stroke the owners of nothing but scrap machinery that won’t work.  … With the industrialist and the financier and the average man all against him, how long will the Commdor hold out?”

[gocard14]

Also some crazy (alleged) footage of a soldier with a MANPAD shooting down an incoming cruise missle.  I didn't know that was even possible, but if so would have to assume it is the soldier rolling a natural 20 and being in the exact right place at the right time. 

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-...deo-russia

---

From what I gather, western economic sanctions have had the following effect:

1) Consumer and retail spending have dropped 20% in the last year.
2) There's been a mass exodus of 500k Russians to other countries, most of whom were highly skilled, educated workers.
3) There's been another mass exodus of young, Russian, conscript-age men to adjacent countries.
4) Auto sales have declined 95%.
5) Russian imports have dropped 50% from $8.1 billion in January 2022 to $3.8 billion in April 2022.
6) Between the invasion and July 31, Russian foreign exchange reserves plummeted by $75 billion. 
7) GDP is expected to drop by between 5.5% and 9%.
8) Inflation will hit 22% this year. Sectors dependent on international supply chains have increased inflation of 40% to 60%
9) Moscow's main stock index has dropped by more than 1/3rd.
10) Russia's "pivot to the East" is underway, not nearly complete. And China is buying at a $35 discount per barrel of oil.
11) Russian purchasing managers' index has dropped like a rock.
12) 1,000+ global companies representing 40% of Russian GDP have fled Russia.
13) 15,000+ Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWIs) have fled Russia, representing 20% of all Russians worth $30 mms. or more.
14) Russian money supply has skyrocketed as they artificially stimulate the economy.
15) Small to mid-sized Russian businesses can't get credit.

Conclusions:
1) Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas.

2) Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy

3) Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst

4) As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneouscapitalandpopulationflightinamassexodusofRussia’seconomicbase

If you really want to know, here's 48 slides that were presented yesterday on how sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, sourced by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute.

Russian Economic Impact Slide Deck - August 2022 v6.pdf | Powered by Box

Other data above sourced by IMF, World Bank, U.S. State Department, OECD, and the YCELI.

Thanks for this. It does detail the significant effects of the sanctions. One would hope that at some point these effects would render the Russian state unable to function. Lets hope that point is reached soon!

I'm reminded of a section of one of my favorite books (the foundation series), where the protagonists' nation fights an enemy that is economically dependent on them.


"They’ll send their sons out in unlimited numbers to die horribly on broken spaceships.  They’ll bear up under enemy bombardment, (even) if it means that they have to live on stale bread and foul water in caves half a mile deep.  But it’s very hard to bear up under little things when the patriotic uplift of imminent danger is not present.  It’s going to be a stalemate.  There will be no (home front) casualties, no bombardments, no battles.  There will just be a knife that won’t cut, and a stove that won't cook, and a house that freezes in the winter.  It will be annoying and people will grumble.”

“I expect … a general background of grumbling and dissatisfaction which will be seized on by more important figures later on.  … The manufacturers, the factory owners, the industrialists of Korell. … the machines in the factories will one by one fail.  Those industries that we changed from first to last with our new atomic gadgets will find themselves very suddenly ruined. … at a stroke the owners of nothing but scrap machinery that won’t work.  … With the industrialist and the financier and the average man all against him, how long will the Commdor hold out?”