[GK3]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497035826139738125?s=46&t=j4h5qNi9xNJpsVx3aXewjw[/tweet]

Considering that thread goes back to the first *day* of what was supposed to have been a three day special operation, it looks to have been gloriously prescient.

BC

BC - Thanks for sharing those Tweets.  As you say it was very prescient.  Reports on ISW indicate that Russian manpower defending the area North of Kherson is extremely depleted.  One unsubstantiated piece said some villages along the corridors of the Ukrainian attacks are being defended by no more than one or two men.  Seems hard to believe but the increasingly rapid progress being made along roads 1505, 2207 and 403 tends to indicate that Russian command is doing its best to retreat in order and establish new defensive positions much closer to Kherson.
If they can really push down 2207 they might be able to reach the bridge before those retreating down 403 can get there, enabling them to do what Goose suggest, squeeze those left along 403 up against the river with no place to go and seize the bridge.  At the same time an attack down 1505 directly at Kherson would limit the Russian ability to send anyone North to try and support Russian forces in trouble there.  
Obviously none of this may happen.  Do the Russians have enough men, equipment and ammunition to continue to try and establish any kind of defense in depth?  Do the Ukrainians enough of the same to persevere? 
The Ukrainian opportunities abound but to paraphrase Field Marshal von Moltke, "no plan survives first contact".  The Russians will get their say in the matter one way or the other.

[GK3]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497035826139738125?s=46&t=j4h5qNi9xNJpsVx3aXewjw[/tweet]

Considering that thread goes back to the first *day* of what was supposed to have been a three day special operation, it looks to have been gloriously prescient.

BC

BC - Thanks for sharing those Tweets.  As you say it was very prescient.  Reports on ISW indicate that Russian manpower defending the area North of Kherson is extremely depleted.  One unsubstantiated piece said some villages along the corridors of the Ukrainian attacks are being defended by no more than one or two men.  Seems hard to believe but the increasingly rapid progress being made along roads 1505, 2207 and 403 tends to indicate that Russian command is doing its best to retreat in order and establish new defensive positions much closer to Kherson.
If they can really push down 2207 they might be able to reach the bridge before those retreating down 403 can get there, enabling them to do what Goose suggest, squeeze those left along 403 up against the river with no place to go and seize the bridge.  At the same time an attack down 1505 directly at Kherson would limit the Russian ability to send anyone North to try and support Russian forces in trouble there.  
Obviously none of this may happen.  Do the Russians have enough men, equipment and ammunition to continue to try and establish any kind of defense in depth?  Do the Ukrainians enough of the same to persevere? 
The Ukrainian opportunities abound but to paraphrase Field Marshal von Moltke, "no plan survives first contact".  The Russians will get their say in the matter one way or the other.