(10-04-2022, 05:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote: It looks like they are just going to clear everything between the Inhulets’ and Dnipro rivers, no? Then advance on Kherson from Snihurivka and Kyselivka while pressuring the sole bridge out.Possibly that is what the Ukrainians will do, in fact probably. I can't help it, I think like an American. The "correct" solution is to deploy a covering force fixing the Russian on the right bank of the Dnipro in place. Leave them to rot. They are not getting supplies and fuel, they can't go anywhere. Then, bounce the river at Kherson and Nova Kakhovka. Move armor to the left bank. This prevents the Russians from retreating and also totally dislocates the Russian plan to defend the rest of the Kherson Oblast. You move quickly, much quicker than they can react.
BC
The problem with clearing the west bank is that it will take lots of time and casualties. The Russians have shown they know how to run. This is devaluing the Ukraine's successes because too many Russians get away. Yes, they leave lots of material behind, but Putin is already short troops. Losing 25K or so as POWs is worse for him than 12K KIA, the rest run away. Putin was probably hoping he could hold the west bank through the winter. Worst case, he would get 50% of his troops out and have a defensible river line to retire behind. He can then build up his strength in Kherson without worrying that he will be attacked. It may be he gets that worst case outcome. My hope would be it is worse than that and Ukraine gets bridgeheads on the east bank from which it can strike a large force of Russians in Khrson Oblast that aren't prepared for that. That is how you beat Russians.
OK, back to reality :-). Hopefully, it will be a great victory. I don't think Ukraine is ready for two simultaneous thunder runs yet. After they get a bit more training and their four more HIMARS, 15K more troops trained in the EU, and whatever NASAMS we finally deliver to them, maybe they will be in the spring :-).