[Goose]

I think it was only a few months ago (May/June) that Russia took the northeastern part of Donetsk Oblast.  These towns didn't fall in the initial invasion, but after a grinding battle that culminated in Russia's capture of Severodonetsk.  I don't really understand how the tables turned so dramatically.  I would have thought that Russia would have an easy time defending this territory after taking it (since defense is easier than offense).  We can't just attribute this to the incompetence of the Russian soldiers.  They were the same soldiers who took the same terrain not that long ago. What gives?

No, in general they aren't. Most of those soldiers (that survived) are either in the area around the city of Donetsk conducting "meaningless offensive operations" or have been redeployed to Kherson/Crimea. Some have been pulled back into Russia proper to refit. This pullback is similar to the one Russia conducted before the shift to the Donbas offensive. Most of the troops defending these areas are DPR and LPR militia stiffened by a few Russian regiments. Unsurprisingly, they don't fight very hard. As I said in another post, some Russian milbloggers think Putin is sandbagging and will counter with a new offensive once Ukraine is weakened by battle losses and the need to defend more territory. I assume both the Ukraine and the US are watching that situation carefully.

Was it the HIMARS that caused this reversal of fortune?

To a significant extent. It put more strain on the Russian logistics apparatus than it could manage. It also can make a "hole" in just about any defense in the "finger of God" mode. I think Ukraine has used the latter ability quite a bit recently. That is why I really wish Ukraine had 30-50 of these units rather than 26 or so HIMARS/M270/MARS. The Russians appear to be scared to death of them, because they have no effective counter weapon.

[Goose]

I think it was only a few months ago (May/June) that Russia took the northeastern part of Donetsk Oblast.  These towns didn't fall in the initial invasion, but after a grinding battle that culminated in Russia's capture of Severodonetsk.  I don't really understand how the tables turned so dramatically.  I would have thought that Russia would have an easy time defending this territory after taking it (since defense is easier than offense).  We can't just attribute this to the incompetence of the Russian soldiers.  They were the same soldiers who took the same terrain not that long ago. What gives?

No, in general they aren't. Most of those soldiers (that survived) are either in the area around the city of Donetsk conducting "meaningless offensive operations" or have been redeployed to Kherson/Crimea. Some have been pulled back into Russia proper to refit. This pullback is similar to the one Russia conducted before the shift to the Donbas offensive. Most of the troops defending these areas are DPR and LPR militia stiffened by a few Russian regiments. Unsurprisingly, they don't fight very hard. As I said in another post, some Russian milbloggers think Putin is sandbagging and will counter with a new offensive once Ukraine is weakened by battle losses and the need to defend more territory. I assume both the Ukraine and the US are watching that situation carefully.

Was it the HIMARS that caused this reversal of fortune?

To a significant extent. It put more strain on the Russian logistics apparatus than it could manage. It also can make a "hole" in just about any defense in the "finger of God" mode. I think Ukraine has used the latter ability quite a bit recently. That is why I really wish Ukraine had 30-50 of these units rather than 26 or so HIMARS/M270/MARS. The Russians appear to be scared to death of them, because they have no effective counter weapon.