[Goose]

The threat of intervention from Belarus is probably better for Russia than any actual invasion from there. 

Russia is on the back foot in Kherson and Donetsk, if Russia has quality reserves they should be used to stop their current losses and open up the Lyman encirclement, rather than open a new front. Starting a new offensive in a completely different area would likely end just like their Kyiv thunder run, with a lot of dead Russians and blown up equipment in a short time. It's easier for Ukraine to move forces around on their interior lines than it is for Russia, and any gains an offensive would make would require further support to hold it, support they desperately need to be sending elsewhere. With all their best offensive troops tied down defending Kherson, I don't think it's very likely.

Ukraine may have to hold some forces back to guard against the possibility which is a plus for Russia, but if Russia tried it, would just hasten their eventual loss.

Not only that, but there is some evidence that photo is actually an old one. It looks like spring there and the weather doesn't match the supposed date.

Normally you would be correct. It makes no sense to start an offensive that you don't have the troops to reinforce. However, Russia doesn't always do what makes sense. It is also true that Ukraine isn't flush with forces either and anything Russia can peel away from the main efforts is a "good thing" for them. In areas where Russia is basically unopposed, they can use conscripts to force Ukraine to deploy some of the better trained forces.

Ukraine is a big country. Even the areas colored Red and Blue are not exactly full of their respective troops. Ukraine demonstrated this around Izyum. Once they got through the front, there wasn't much opposition. Russia evacuated a lot of areas they were not forced to. For political reasons there is pressure to go back. Similarly, Ukraine is under political pressure not to let it happen.

[Goose]

The threat of intervention from Belarus is probably better for Russia than any actual invasion from there. 

Russia is on the back foot in Kherson and Donetsk, if Russia has quality reserves they should be used to stop their current losses and open up the Lyman encirclement, rather than open a new front. Starting a new offensive in a completely different area would likely end just like their Kyiv thunder run, with a lot of dead Russians and blown up equipment in a short time. It's easier for Ukraine to move forces around on their interior lines than it is for Russia, and any gains an offensive would make would require further support to hold it, support they desperately need to be sending elsewhere. With all their best offensive troops tied down defending Kherson, I don't think it's very likely.

Ukraine may have to hold some forces back to guard against the possibility which is a plus for Russia, but if Russia tried it, would just hasten their eventual loss.

Not only that, but there is some evidence that photo is actually an old one. It looks like spring there and the weather doesn't match the supposed date.

Normally you would be correct. It makes no sense to start an offensive that you don't have the troops to reinforce. However, Russia doesn't always do what makes sense. It is also true that Ukraine isn't flush with forces either and anything Russia can peel away from the main efforts is a "good thing" for them. In areas where Russia is basically unopposed, they can use conscripts to force Ukraine to deploy some of the better trained forces.

Ukraine is a big country. Even the areas colored Red and Blue are not exactly full of their respective troops. Ukraine demonstrated this around Izyum. Once they got through the front, there wasn't much opposition. Russia evacuated a lot of areas they were not forced to. For political reasons there is pressure to go back. Similarly, Ukraine is under political pressure not to let it happen.