[Goose]

If I were Putin I'd order a nuclear test or two just to be sure.

And honestly it would probably be his safest move if he wants to scare Ukraine's allies and give rhetorical ammo to those who favor appeasement without risking anything too hot coming back his way.

Interesting thought. It would appear you are talking about an actual atmospheric explosion, something that hasn't happened for a while. It would also be a treaty violation, but then that may not matter. If he didn't announce it in advance, he would be risking accidentally starting a nuclear war. An underground test would probably not need advanced notice, but would not be as spectacular.

I agree it could be a good form of messaging. I don't think it would say much about the state of his deterrent force weapons. If it "worked", the next one might not and visa-versa. How many do you need to test to be "sure"?

[Goose]

If I were Putin I'd order a nuclear test or two just to be sure.

And honestly it would probably be his safest move if he wants to scare Ukraine's allies and give rhetorical ammo to those who favor appeasement without risking anything too hot coming back his way.

Interesting thought. It would appear you are talking about an actual atmospheric explosion, something that hasn't happened for a while. It would also be a treaty violation, but then that may not matter. If he didn't announce it in advance, he would be risking accidentally starting a nuclear war. An underground test would probably not need advanced notice, but would not be as spectacular.

I agree it could be a good form of messaging. I don't think it would say much about the state of his deterrent force weapons. If it "worked", the next one might not and visa-versa. How many do you need to test to be "sure"?