09-29-2022, 01:51 PM
(09-29-2022, 12:46 PM)Treefence Wrote: Goose, in regards to Kherson, do you think it's possible Ukraine is waiting for the right moment, to start a counter offensive from the Zaporizhzhia region, in hopes to cut off what is left of the supply lines to Kherson, and also end the land bridge to Crimea? The only reason I bring that up is because Russian sources has repeatedly mentioned a mass of Ukrainian armor near that area, and have been expecting an attack. This could all be a bluff by Ukraine, to conceal attacks elsewhere, maybe there's a bunch of inflatable tank brigades in that area, spooking Russian sources...Certainly possible. It is known that Zelenskyy is partial to such an offensive and had to be talked out of it. It appears that Russia isn't making as much use of that land bridge right now as previously. The most recent reinforcements have come across the bridge and through Crimea. That could just be a coincidence however.
My guess, FWIW (very little) is that the armor force is there for three reasons. First, it forces Russia to garrison the Zaporizhzhia region much more heavily. They can't move forces either towards Kherson or towards Donetsk without leaving a hole Ukraine could exploit. Second, if Kherson/Nova Kakhovka (especially the latter) is captured, the Russians may decide to retreat via/pull out of the "land bridge" back towards Donetsk. If that happens, this armor could hit the flank of a retreating Russian army with it's other flank to the Sea of Azov. Not a good place to be. Third, it prevents Russia from moving north west any further out of the land bridge. Give all this, it is doing lots of good just sitting there.
