[Goose]

I’m not sure we should assume this follow up offensive is so great for Ukraine. The initial offensive was lightening fast and netted thousands of square miles with a strong/defensible border at the Oskil River. This new offensive seems more grinding and isn’t taking nearly as much land. Maybe 100 sq miles so far and another 100 if Lyman falls?  And agin Lyman is a town of 20k people (pre-war), so we’re not talking about liberating large numbers of Ukrainians still living in this town (or the smaller surrounding towns). I guess the theory is that Ukraine should take what Russia is giving, and Kherson would be too difficult to liberate right now. And better not to lose a war of attrition in the South. But jeez, this seems like a small prize compared to the potential for liberating the land west of the Dnipro.

The initial offensive hit a defense that was a shell. There was nothing behind it. That isn't good military practice, but Russia just doesn't have the troops for a defense in depth. The shell itself was manned by troops some of which were not very good. Once through, the offensive hit air. Russia apparently also ordered basically all the units in the northern part of the Kharkiv Oblast to withdraw whether pressed or not. Not a standard military practice, in fact quite puzzling. It may be Russia felt these troops might run anyway and better they do so in a somewhat orderly fashion. In any case, Ukraine was given a gift. They were smart enough and well trained enough to capitalize on Russia's failures but in most cases it isn't going to be like that.
FWIW, victory by Ukraine in Lyman might actually damage the Russian military more than the previous offensive. It appears, as far as I can tell, that Russia did not evacuate Lyman. As I was saying all along during the previous offensive, the lack of POWs indicated Russia was not resisting. What little they had there mostly got out. It appears that may not be the case at Lyman. A few thousand Russian POWs might be quite useful to Ukraine. Politically, Putin isn't going to like that much. Also, as the ISW is pointing put, victory here would put the Ukrainian thrust on the rear of the current Russian offensive in Donetsk. It will be a bit far away, but as we have seen that can change fast. Does Russia keep trying to advance or does it turn to "honor the threat"? I am assuming creating a new defensive line south of Lyman from whole cloth is beyond their capabilities. War is usually hard.

I also wouldn't give up hope around Kherson. Ukraine may have figured out how long Russia can survive there and are just waiting for the Russians to weaken enough to collapse. No point in losing troops you don't have to. I for sure don't want to let the Russians off the hook there, but I also expect Ukraine feels the same :-). Lets see what happens in a month.

[Goose]

I’m not sure we should assume this follow up offensive is so great for Ukraine. The initial offensive was lightening fast and netted thousands of square miles with a strong/defensible border at the Oskil River. This new offensive seems more grinding and isn’t taking nearly as much land. Maybe 100 sq miles so far and another 100 if Lyman falls?  And agin Lyman is a town of 20k people (pre-war), so we’re not talking about liberating large numbers of Ukrainians still living in this town (or the smaller surrounding towns). I guess the theory is that Ukraine should take what Russia is giving, and Kherson would be too difficult to liberate right now. And better not to lose a war of attrition in the South. But jeez, this seems like a small prize compared to the potential for liberating the land west of the Dnipro.

The initial offensive hit a defense that was a shell. There was nothing behind it. That isn't good military practice, but Russia just doesn't have the troops for a defense in depth. The shell itself was manned by troops some of which were not very good. Once through, the offensive hit air. Russia apparently also ordered basically all the units in the northern part of the Kharkiv Oblast to withdraw whether pressed or not. Not a standard military practice, in fact quite puzzling. It may be Russia felt these troops might run anyway and better they do so in a somewhat orderly fashion. In any case, Ukraine was given a gift. They were smart enough and well trained enough to capitalize on Russia's failures but in most cases it isn't going to be like that.
FWIW, victory by Ukraine in Lyman might actually damage the Russian military more than the previous offensive. It appears, as far as I can tell, that Russia did not evacuate Lyman. As I was saying all along during the previous offensive, the lack of POWs indicated Russia was not resisting. What little they had there mostly got out. It appears that may not be the case at Lyman. A few thousand Russian POWs might be quite useful to Ukraine. Politically, Putin isn't going to like that much. Also, as the ISW is pointing put, victory here would put the Ukrainian thrust on the rear of the current Russian offensive in Donetsk. It will be a bit far away, but as we have seen that can change fast. Does Russia keep trying to advance or does it turn to "honor the threat"? I am assuming creating a new defensive line south of Lyman from whole cloth is beyond their capabilities. War is usually hard.

I also wouldn't give up hope around Kherson. Ukraine may have figured out how long Russia can survive there and are just waiting for the Russians to weaken enough to collapse. No point in losing troops you don't have to. I for sure don't want to let the Russians off the hook there, but I also expect Ukraine feels the same :-). Lets see what happens in a month.