[Goose]

I wonder if Russians holding on to Kherson hints that they want to use the city as a bargaining chip, in hopes that Ukraine settles with giving up most of the Donbas and officially recognize Crimea as Russian, in exchange Russia will give up Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, or something along those lines.  No matter what, I don't think Ukraine accepts anything besides pre 2014 borders.

I think Russia held on to Kherson because withdrawing would have admitted they weren't going to take Odessa anytime soon. For quite a while this was a recognized "war aim" of Putin, so giving up on it was politically unacceptable. They also probably never anticipated Ukraine could use HIMARS to control the GLOCS as well as they have done. IOW Russia never anticipated being in such a bad position and when it became apparent that was possible they (predictably) were too slow to act. They are now at a serious tactical disadvantage.

Right now, the question is how much artillery ammunition can/has Russia delivered to the area around Kherson. Ukraine's problem is that they can't attack across the open ground with infantry because the Russian artillery will destroy them. They could possibly do so with a combined arms operation if they could accept pretty heavy losses getting to grips with the Russians. Ukraine would almost certainly need significant counter-battery activity to have a shot at this. Ukraine may believe they just don't have the assets to do this.

Ideally, Ukraine would find paths through the Russian defenses that would allow them to get across the River and behind the Russian defenses (while not suffering heavy losses doing it). The have done such a thing in the north. It may be there are just too many Russians in the south to do similarly. The assault may not "hit air" in Kherson Oblast. It also may be that Ukraine believes the Russians on the west side of the river are going to run out of artillery ammunition in a few days/weeks/months and there is no need to take heavy losses. They may be correct.

I totally agree that Ukraine at this point will not accept anything less than the pre 2014 borders. I can see a scenario where Ukraine gives up Crimea in exchange for all of Donbas, reconstruction, bi-lateral security arrangements and NATO membership. I don't see any scenario where Ukraine would accept less. For certain Ukraine will insist on all of Kherson Oblast being returned.

[Goose]

I wonder if Russians holding on to Kherson hints that they want to use the city as a bargaining chip, in hopes that Ukraine settles with giving up most of the Donbas and officially recognize Crimea as Russian, in exchange Russia will give up Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, or something along those lines.  No matter what, I don't think Ukraine accepts anything besides pre 2014 borders.

I think Russia held on to Kherson because withdrawing would have admitted they weren't going to take Odessa anytime soon. For quite a while this was a recognized "war aim" of Putin, so giving up on it was politically unacceptable. They also probably never anticipated Ukraine could use HIMARS to control the GLOCS as well as they have done. IOW Russia never anticipated being in such a bad position and when it became apparent that was possible they (predictably) were too slow to act. They are now at a serious tactical disadvantage.

Right now, the question is how much artillery ammunition can/has Russia delivered to the area around Kherson. Ukraine's problem is that they can't attack across the open ground with infantry because the Russian artillery will destroy them. They could possibly do so with a combined arms operation if they could accept pretty heavy losses getting to grips with the Russians. Ukraine would almost certainly need significant counter-battery activity to have a shot at this. Ukraine may believe they just don't have the assets to do this.

Ideally, Ukraine would find paths through the Russian defenses that would allow them to get across the River and behind the Russian defenses (while not suffering heavy losses doing it). The have done such a thing in the north. It may be there are just too many Russians in the south to do similarly. The assault may not "hit air" in Kherson Oblast. It also may be that Ukraine believes the Russians on the west side of the river are going to run out of artillery ammunition in a few days/weeks/months and there is no need to take heavy losses. They may be correct.

I totally agree that Ukraine at this point will not accept anything less than the pre 2014 borders. I can see a scenario where Ukraine gives up Crimea in exchange for all of Donbas, reconstruction, bi-lateral security arrangements and NATO membership. I don't see any scenario where Ukraine would accept less. For certain Ukraine will insist on all of Kherson Oblast being returned.