[Goose]

I don't think you are wrong at all, but I do think something major will change if Russia continues to throw bodies at the problem, and still lose territory, especially if Ukraine starts taking back land, especially land Russia had control of pre Feb 24th.  I think if Major cities like Luhansk/Horlivka/Donetsk were to fall, there would be a major power struggle in Russia, and something would happen to Putin.

This is I think what we all hope will happen and bring an end to this situation. It is rational that Russia has a "breaking point".

It's clear Putin will never stop until it takes all of Ukraine, but I think it's clear that will never happen.

Unfortunately, I don't share your belief it is clear that Ukraine will never let this happen. Ukraine has breaking points too. I don't know where they are, but they exist. Putin is (IMHO) betting those can be reached before Russia's are. We all think he is wrong, but he may not be. In either case, he has no choice but to proceed and hope he is right.

I do wonder if Putin's next move would be at acknowledge the pre Feb 24th borders, and withdraw his military from the other occupied lands, in an attempt to give him time to strike a third time.  Who knows, honestly.

REVISION: Ukraine would accept only if Russia returned to before 2014 boundaries (returning Crimea). If Putin did this, Ukraine would agree and the west could ensure Ukraine was strong enough to prevent a Russian attack from succeeding (or even being attempted). It would turn Russia into another North Korea with Ukraine as South Korea. Not peace, but not war. I think we would all accept this result as not perfect but far better than continuing hostilities. We all hope Russia will "see the light" and become a liberal democracy but I think we will end up with something well short of that, best case. However, as you say, who knows what happens :-).

Feb 23 boundaries would be a political football. What would the EU say if Ukraine wants to fight on? What would the US say? Putin might try this figuring it would break the alliance. Let's hope he doesn't go there.

[Goose]

I don't think you are wrong at all, but I do think something major will change if Russia continues to throw bodies at the problem, and still lose territory, especially if Ukraine starts taking back land, especially land Russia had control of pre Feb 24th.  I think if Major cities like Luhansk/Horlivka/Donetsk were to fall, there would be a major power struggle in Russia, and something would happen to Putin.

This is I think what we all hope will happen and bring an end to this situation. It is rational that Russia has a "breaking point".

It's clear Putin will never stop until it takes all of Ukraine, but I think it's clear that will never happen.

Unfortunately, I don't share your belief it is clear that Ukraine will never let this happen. Ukraine has breaking points too. I don't know where they are, but they exist. Putin is (IMHO) betting those can be reached before Russia's are. We all think he is wrong, but he may not be. In either case, he has no choice but to proceed and hope he is right.

I do wonder if Putin's next move would be at acknowledge the pre Feb 24th borders, and withdraw his military from the other occupied lands, in an attempt to give him time to strike a third time.  Who knows, honestly.

REVISION: Ukraine would accept only if Russia returned to before 2014 boundaries (returning Crimea). If Putin did this, Ukraine would agree and the west could ensure Ukraine was strong enough to prevent a Russian attack from succeeding (or even being attempted). It would turn Russia into another North Korea with Ukraine as South Korea. Not peace, but not war. I think we would all accept this result as not perfect but far better than continuing hostilities. We all hope Russia will "see the light" and become a liberal democracy but I think we will end up with something well short of that, best case. However, as you say, who knows what happens :-).

Feb 23 boundaries would be a political football. What would the EU say if Ukraine wants to fight on? What would the US say? Putin might try this figuring it would break the alliance. Let's hope he doesn't go there.