09-27-2022, 11:26 AM
Ukraine continues to make progress on the ground. It is not always dramatic progress, but as long as it continues Russia is just delaying the inevitable. The situation appears to be that Putin is trying to demonstrate he is willing to kill as many of his own citizens as it takes to eventually wear Ukraine and its supporters down to the point they can't continue.
It might make some sense for Russia to draft 300K soldiers (not old men and criminals), train them up and in six months field a force that was larger than Ukraine's and well enough armed to resume the artillery war. Whether Russia could indeed do this is questionable, but to attempt it could make some sense. It appears that is not what is happening. The new conscripts are being sent in "penny packets" directly into the fight where they can't be effective. They just add to the casualty count. It was always true, even back in Soviet times, that the Russian army had widely variable standards of competence. There "best" units were very formidable. It went down hill to the "B" and "C" units. This was by design. However even the "C" units were better than what Russia is fielding now (totally untrained troops and equally untrained officers).
The problem is that Putin may believe his only alternative is to keep pounding away, taking the casualties, until "something happens", like the US gives up, Zelenskyy is killed, the gas shortage becomes so acute the EU folds, Ukraine makes a tactical blunder, something, anything. Obviously, Russia can't do this forever. The questions really are "How long can Putin keep killing Russians for no apparent gain?", "How long can Ukraine stand the effects of the war on their country?", and "How long will the west keep focused on this war?". Even though Russia is the "bigger power", it seems Putin is resorting to the guerrilla tactic of declaring "I am not defeated unless I stop fighting" and Ukraine is in no position to force Russia to do that. Even if Ukraine gets back all it's territory, if Putin is still in power, it ain't over. I must admit that thought is kind of depressing.
It might make some sense for Russia to draft 300K soldiers (not old men and criminals), train them up and in six months field a force that was larger than Ukraine's and well enough armed to resume the artillery war. Whether Russia could indeed do this is questionable, but to attempt it could make some sense. It appears that is not what is happening. The new conscripts are being sent in "penny packets" directly into the fight where they can't be effective. They just add to the casualty count. It was always true, even back in Soviet times, that the Russian army had widely variable standards of competence. There "best" units were very formidable. It went down hill to the "B" and "C" units. This was by design. However even the "C" units were better than what Russia is fielding now (totally untrained troops and equally untrained officers).
The problem is that Putin may believe his only alternative is to keep pounding away, taking the casualties, until "something happens", like the US gives up, Zelenskyy is killed, the gas shortage becomes so acute the EU folds, Ukraine makes a tactical blunder, something, anything. Obviously, Russia can't do this forever. The questions really are "How long can Putin keep killing Russians for no apparent gain?", "How long can Ukraine stand the effects of the war on their country?", and "How long will the west keep focused on this war?". Even though Russia is the "bigger power", it seems Putin is resorting to the guerrilla tactic of declaring "I am not defeated unless I stop fighting" and Ukraine is in no position to force Russia to do that. Even if Ukraine gets back all it's territory, if Putin is still in power, it ain't over. I must admit that thought is kind of depressing.