09-20-2022, 01:19 PM
The main reason Putin wants to annex these Ukrainian areas so hastily is to allow him to send conscripts there without their consent. How much that will actually help his manpower problem I don't know but it should be "significant". These conscripts probably are not able to fight very well but they can (in theory) function as LOC troops. Putin may be opening a can of worms for himself in that even LOC troops can get killed. While the Russian "contract soldiers" are often from rural areas that "nobody cares about", conscripts are from a broader demographic. That certainly should draw more attention to this "war" and maybe not to Putin's benefit.
The "referendums" are very stupid IMHO. Nobody in the world will actually think they are legitimate expressions of popular will. Nations that are pro-Ukraine will say they are a sham, and nations that are beholden to Russia will say they are legitimate. Neither group will actually think they are legitimate. Putin should just declare these areas part of Russia "by acclimation" and leave it at that. I suspect that if there actually is a vote that it will be violently disrupted in many areas, further demonstrating they are a sham and that Russia cannot ensure the safety of the populace in these areas.
The draconian laws against surrender and refusing to fight can be interpreted two ways. One way is that this is a sop to the "hawks" who think Putin is too soft and not doing enough. Another way is that these two activities are actually perceived as causing significant problems for the Russian military. Obviously, Russia (and the US) already have serious punishments for dereliction of duty and desertion in the face of the enemy. However, these laws only operate at full strength in a declared war. Putin hasn't got that so he needed new laws. We already know Russia has been shooting troops who run. How widespread that activity is I don't know. Enforcing these new laws could create quite a controversy in Russia. How do you decide if a surrender was "justified", and who decides?
The "referendums" are very stupid IMHO. Nobody in the world will actually think they are legitimate expressions of popular will. Nations that are pro-Ukraine will say they are a sham, and nations that are beholden to Russia will say they are legitimate. Neither group will actually think they are legitimate. Putin should just declare these areas part of Russia "by acclimation" and leave it at that. I suspect that if there actually is a vote that it will be violently disrupted in many areas, further demonstrating they are a sham and that Russia cannot ensure the safety of the populace in these areas.
The draconian laws against surrender and refusing to fight can be interpreted two ways. One way is that this is a sop to the "hawks" who think Putin is too soft and not doing enough. Another way is that these two activities are actually perceived as causing significant problems for the Russian military. Obviously, Russia (and the US) already have serious punishments for dereliction of duty and desertion in the face of the enemy. However, these laws only operate at full strength in a declared war. Putin hasn't got that so he needed new laws. We already know Russia has been shooting troops who run. How widespread that activity is I don't know. Enforcing these new laws could create quite a controversy in Russia. How do you decide if a surrender was "justified", and who decides?