[Goose]

Another great article from Jack Watling, I think the best analyst of the Ukraine conflict.

This is on the unlikely prospect of regime change in Russia. The persistence of Saddam's reign in spite of losing the Iran-Iraq war an interesting precedent.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...ble-russia

I like Jack Watling too. While this article does talk about the idea of regime change in Russia as being "unlikely", the article is also suggesting that the west needs to be prepared for several different possible scenarios. I agree with that. Chaos theory applies to war in general and wars involving Russia in spades. "Insignificant" events can suddenly change everything for reasons that analysts subsequently take years dissecting.

My expectation is still that none of what Dr. Watling discusses will be what removes Putin, unless one describes actions by the FSB as a "palace coup". I don't, because they are not really part of "the government". They are a separate state that is loyal only to itself and it's "principles". Putin came from there but he is now, and has been for a long time, outside the tent. The FSB can cause the replacement of the head of state without "regime change". They have many levers of power they can throw (or refuse to throw) that can replace Putin with somebody they believe will get Russia back on the rails. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. The name changes but the organization remains.

The FSB is the only nationwide organization in Russia that is not subject to coercion by anybody else and is not penetrated by the FSB. They are also capable of compartmentalizing things so that Putin will not be aware of them. FSB staff are used to following orders from above that they do not fully understand the reasons for. They are indeed the "Deep State", and they can make things happen in ways nobody else can.

There are some other authors that have written in more detail  than Dr. Watling did here drawing parallels between Saddam's survival and Putin's. FWIW I think the history of the two nations, the makeup of the populace, and the social organization of the two countries are so different this is an impossible simile. Yes, they both might survive, but the mechanics of how the did/do it are of necessity very different.

UPDATE:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world-must-re...00396.html
Another suggestion to be prepared for unexpected results.

[Goose]

Another great article from Jack Watling, I think the best analyst of the Ukraine conflict.

This is on the unlikely prospect of regime change in Russia. The persistence of Saddam's reign in spite of losing the Iran-Iraq war an interesting precedent.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/pu...ble-russia

I like Jack Watling too. While this article does talk about the idea of regime change in Russia as being "unlikely", the article is also suggesting that the west needs to be prepared for several different possible scenarios. I agree with that. Chaos theory applies to war in general and wars involving Russia in spades. "Insignificant" events can suddenly change everything for reasons that analysts subsequently take years dissecting.

My expectation is still that none of what Dr. Watling discusses will be what removes Putin, unless one describes actions by the FSB as a "palace coup". I don't, because they are not really part of "the government". They are a separate state that is loyal only to itself and it's "principles". Putin came from there but he is now, and has been for a long time, outside the tent. The FSB can cause the replacement of the head of state without "regime change". They have many levers of power they can throw (or refuse to throw) that can replace Putin with somebody they believe will get Russia back on the rails. It certainly wouldn't be the first time. The name changes but the organization remains.

The FSB is the only nationwide organization in Russia that is not subject to coercion by anybody else and is not penetrated by the FSB. They are also capable of compartmentalizing things so that Putin will not be aware of them. FSB staff are used to following orders from above that they do not fully understand the reasons for. They are indeed the "Deep State", and they can make things happen in ways nobody else can.

There are some other authors that have written in more detail  than Dr. Watling did here drawing parallels between Saddam's survival and Putin's. FWIW I think the history of the two nations, the makeup of the populace, and the social organization of the two countries are so different this is an impossible simile. Yes, they both might survive, but the mechanics of how the did/do it are of necessity very different.

UPDATE:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/world-must-re...00396.html
Another suggestion to be prepared for unexpected results.