[Leftcoast]

Any thoughts on what China makes of this in regards to the future of Taiwan?

On one hand Taiwan is an island nation with an extremely hilly terrain.  Its national capitol is also a tech capitol where any instability could shutdown much of the world's electronics/tech economy (notably including the LARGE chip foundries at TSMC, UMC, #1 and #4 in the world respectively for microchip production **).  I've got to believe that the Chinese Airforce and Military would be fearsome foes especially compared to the anemic Russian performance in Ukraine. Common wisdom holds that China views Taiwan's independent status as a national embarrassment and one where they might willingly take a 10-20 year economic and reputation hit as a viable cost, particularly under the increasingly nationalistic Xi Jinping regime.

There is also a h.uge risk of a super power stand-off with any Taiwan/China war. Island geographies cut both ways. China would almost certainly blockade Taiwan and defend against any arms shipments by sea or by air with deadly force. No simple cross-border transfers of materiel through 3rd party nations. Think about THAT when contemplating US support for Taiwan once hostilities commence.

China must be watching the Ukraine war unfold very, very carefully and taking copious notes on strategy. That makes it even more imperative (if possible) that the world must not waver in making Russia's imperialistic adventure unsuccessful. The economic and political impact of Putin's war with Ukraine would be a mustard seed compared with a Taiwan war.

For those of you who follow Taiwan/China politics - what lessons do you think China is learning from the war in Ukraine? Is Xi more or less likely to consider acting against Taiwan based upon what he's seen over the last 6 months?

===================================

** By one recent estimate Taiwan makes 65% of the worlds semi-conductors and 95% of the "advanced chips". Seems high to me given South Korea's contribution but regardless any shutdown or reduction in supply would be crippling.

[Leftcoast]

Any thoughts on what China makes of this in regards to the future of Taiwan?

On one hand Taiwan is an island nation with an extremely hilly terrain.  Its national capitol is also a tech capitol where any instability could shutdown much of the world's electronics/tech economy (notably including the LARGE chip foundries at TSMC, UMC, #1 and #4 in the world respectively for microchip production **).  I've got to believe that the Chinese Airforce and Military would be fearsome foes especially compared to the anemic Russian performance in Ukraine. Common wisdom holds that China views Taiwan's independent status as a national embarrassment and one where they might willingly take a 10-20 year economic and reputation hit as a viable cost, particularly under the increasingly nationalistic Xi Jinping regime.

There is also a h.uge risk of a super power stand-off with any Taiwan/China war. Island geographies cut both ways. China would almost certainly blockade Taiwan and defend against any arms shipments by sea or by air with deadly force. No simple cross-border transfers of materiel through 3rd party nations. Think about THAT when contemplating US support for Taiwan once hostilities commence.

China must be watching the Ukraine war unfold very, very carefully and taking copious notes on strategy. That makes it even more imperative (if possible) that the world must not waver in making Russia's imperialistic adventure unsuccessful. The economic and political impact of Putin's war with Ukraine would be a mustard seed compared with a Taiwan war.

For those of you who follow Taiwan/China politics - what lessons do you think China is learning from the war in Ukraine? Is Xi more or less likely to consider acting against Taiwan based upon what he's seen over the last 6 months?

===================================

** By one recent estimate Taiwan makes 65% of the worlds semi-conductors and 95% of the "advanced chips". Seems high to me given South Korea's contribution but regardless any shutdown or reduction in supply would be crippling.