[Goose]

The talk about surrender in Kherson is not idle speculation, it's sourced from ISW

"Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humeniuk, stated on Sept. 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law."

Of course this is coming from the Ukraine side that wants to spread news of imminent surrender for morale reasons, and it is also possible that negotiations began and went nowhere, but it is more then just spitballing.

The risk of overextension seemed real anyway. There’s a lot of work for Ukraine to do in the territory it just reclaimed. Set up new lines of defense, clear the remnants of Russian forces in rear areas, de-mine to the extent needed, restore infrastructure, etc. Ukraine seems to have defensible geographic boundaries with the Oskil, SD, and Bakhmutka rivers. Just hunker down in the east for winter.

Despite the risk of overextension, I don't think Ukraine is going "on the defensive" in this area. Indeed they will be prudent and place their new territory in a state of defense, but I think they are also going to put as much pressure on Russia in Luhansk as they possibly can. Ukraine isn't going to back off until they absolutely must. There is a real schism opening between the two "independent" states and Russia. The troops from these areas are getting totally destroyed whenever they end up having to fight. Not surprising because they have no training, are not well armed, and have either poor or nonexistent leadership. They also are definitely considered as undesirable by the Russian army. These troops are also not getting paid. To the extent Russia is using these formations to defend anything, there is an opportunity. Ukraine also doesn't want to take the pressure off and allow Russia to redeploy resources from these regions elsewhere.

It is also true that the utility of the Russian passports issued in these areas in coming into question. It is not obvious that you can actually flee to Russia, as the long lines at the border crossings indicate. It is also now not for certain that you won't see Ukrainian troops on your streets "soon". It can give lots of people pause.

If there are gains to be had now, they’re probably in Kherson Oblast, as folks here have said. The south has a warmer climate as well, so there’s more time to advance before cold temps prevail.

Probably this is the case, but keeping things stirred up in the north has advantages. I think it will continue, and during the winter I think long range patrols and Special Forces operations will increase substantially. Ukraine will want to make things just as miserable as possible for the "republics".

Ukraine is making steady progress in Kherson. There likely have been some Russian surrenders as a part of that. Does not seem to be widespread, but Ukrainian advances do seem to be slightly higher paced in past week. Hopefully the Russians will crumble sooner rather than later. It is only a matter of time now though.

I think you are mostly correct. It is certain that Russian outposts have been negotiating surrender terms. While the supply routes to Kherson city still exist, they are very constricted. The supplies flowing to the outposts even when Ukraine is not contesting the routes are undoubtedly even more meager. It is probable some of these outposts realize they are at best looking at starvation and will want to surrender before that happens. This is negotiating surrenders in Kherson, not of Kherson.

It is always wise to remember that in war nothing is inevitable. However, Kherson city is undeniably in a very bad tactical situation. Then again, so was Bastogne. FWIW I think Ukraine really wants to take Nova Kakhovka simultaneously or before it takes Kherson city. Defending Kherson city from a counterattack is orders of magnitude easier if you hold Nova Kakhovka, and visa versa. This also cuts Russian rail communications much more seriously. This is not to say Ukraine would refuse either one if it fell in their lap but I think they will attempt to coordinate these two important objectives. That may allow Kherson to remain Russian longer than otherwise.

It is wise to remember that Russia took Kherson city mostly through the treachery of Ukrainian officials in the area. When one sees how long and effectively Ukraine resisted in other areas it is hard to believe that without that treachery Russia would have ever got to Kherson city on their own. There is a big river in the way. Urkaine could have defended there for a very, very long time. It is also probable that many of the officials in Kherson today are of questionable loyalty to Russia and are negotiating to change sides again. While this isn't the Russian military, treachery in the other direction might have a significant effect.

[Goose]

The talk about surrender in Kherson is not idle speculation, it's sourced from ISW

"Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Natalya Humeniuk, stated on Sept. 12 that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast are attempting to negotiate for surrender under the auspices of international law."

Of course this is coming from the Ukraine side that wants to spread news of imminent surrender for morale reasons, and it is also possible that negotiations began and went nowhere, but it is more then just spitballing.

The risk of overextension seemed real anyway. There’s a lot of work for Ukraine to do in the territory it just reclaimed. Set up new lines of defense, clear the remnants of Russian forces in rear areas, de-mine to the extent needed, restore infrastructure, etc. Ukraine seems to have defensible geographic boundaries with the Oskil, SD, and Bakhmutka rivers. Just hunker down in the east for winter.

Despite the risk of overextension, I don't think Ukraine is going "on the defensive" in this area. Indeed they will be prudent and place their new territory in a state of defense, but I think they are also going to put as much pressure on Russia in Luhansk as they possibly can. Ukraine isn't going to back off until they absolutely must. There is a real schism opening between the two "independent" states and Russia. The troops from these areas are getting totally destroyed whenever they end up having to fight. Not surprising because they have no training, are not well armed, and have either poor or nonexistent leadership. They also are definitely considered as undesirable by the Russian army. These troops are also not getting paid. To the extent Russia is using these formations to defend anything, there is an opportunity. Ukraine also doesn't want to take the pressure off and allow Russia to redeploy resources from these regions elsewhere.

It is also true that the utility of the Russian passports issued in these areas in coming into question. It is not obvious that you can actually flee to Russia, as the long lines at the border crossings indicate. It is also now not for certain that you won't see Ukrainian troops on your streets "soon". It can give lots of people pause.

If there are gains to be had now, they’re probably in Kherson Oblast, as folks here have said. The south has a warmer climate as well, so there’s more time to advance before cold temps prevail.

Probably this is the case, but keeping things stirred up in the north has advantages. I think it will continue, and during the winter I think long range patrols and Special Forces operations will increase substantially. Ukraine will want to make things just as miserable as possible for the "republics".

Ukraine is making steady progress in Kherson. There likely have been some Russian surrenders as a part of that. Does not seem to be widespread, but Ukrainian advances do seem to be slightly higher paced in past week. Hopefully the Russians will crumble sooner rather than later. It is only a matter of time now though.

I think you are mostly correct. It is certain that Russian outposts have been negotiating surrender terms. While the supply routes to Kherson city still exist, they are very constricted. The supplies flowing to the outposts even when Ukraine is not contesting the routes are undoubtedly even more meager. It is probable some of these outposts realize they are at best looking at starvation and will want to surrender before that happens. This is negotiating surrenders in Kherson, not of Kherson.

It is always wise to remember that in war nothing is inevitable. However, Kherson city is undeniably in a very bad tactical situation. Then again, so was Bastogne. FWIW I think Ukraine really wants to take Nova Kakhovka simultaneously or before it takes Kherson city. Defending Kherson city from a counterattack is orders of magnitude easier if you hold Nova Kakhovka, and visa versa. This also cuts Russian rail communications much more seriously. This is not to say Ukraine would refuse either one if it fell in their lap but I think they will attempt to coordinate these two important objectives. That may allow Kherson to remain Russian longer than otherwise.

It is wise to remember that Russia took Kherson city mostly through the treachery of Ukrainian officials in the area. When one sees how long and effectively Ukraine resisted in other areas it is hard to believe that without that treachery Russia would have ever got to Kherson city on their own. There is a big river in the way. Urkaine could have defended there for a very, very long time. It is also probable that many of the officials in Kherson today are of questionable loyalty to Russia and are negotiating to change sides again. While this isn't the Russian military, treachery in the other direction might have a significant effect.