[GK3]

UA took a bunch of stuff that was lightly defended and they surprised the RA.  This is good news, but doesn't indicate yet that the RA is in rout across the battlefield.  Just in the north.

I can also see the RA retreating from Kherson to behind the Dnipro river.  Their current position makes no sense unless they can attack which they haven't done for months in the south.

Six weeks or so ago Russia probably could have pulled in their outposts and retreated across the Dnipro. Ukraine might have been glad to see them go. Today, Russia cannot realistically do so. The tactical reason is that the Ukraine now has the bridges around Kherson in range of their artillery. While Ukraine has finally admitted they can't totally block the bridges to traffic by damaging them, it is equally true that Russia cannot use them without incurring horrific casualties. Furthermore, a withdrawal under fire is probably the most difficult military operation that exists.

The Russian units in Kherson and vicinity are a hodgepodge of different units with deficient training. Some of them are untrained. There is a shortage of POL in Kherson. The Russian BTG organization virtually assures that most of the units have not ever worked together and probably cannot reliably communicate. An attempt to withdraw would be a catastrophe. The Ukraine would interdict the river crossings, destroy the continued buildup of retreating Russians on the bridge approaches, and would be right on the heels (possibly ahead of) the rear guard leaving Kherson. It would be a massacre. On top of that, the Russians would undoubtedly be unable to blow the bridges before the Ukrainian troops arrived. For this reason, Russia is better off fighting it out where they are. At least there is the possibility Ukraine will not push fast enough and winter will save them. If they have to fight, it would at least be from prepared positions, not standing waiting their turn to run across a bridge under observed indirect fire. At that point, when they are overrun they can at least surrender. You can't surrender to an incoming artillery round.

The political reason Russia cannot abandon Kherson at the moment is that it would be yet another shock to the public demonstrating the Russian armies incompetence. Two of those in a row would be very bad. Given there is no good choice here, staying put at least allows the possibility Ukraine will not push you out. 

Maybe the RA collapses from here.  But my guess is a long war.  A RA counter attack wouldn't shock me....

A spoiling attack would actually be a good idea at this point if Russia could mount one. It doesn't have to be real successful, but if it can buy them a month or so the weather might save them. Anybodies guess whether they can pull it off, and I am sure Ukraine knows that is the "school solution" as well as Russia does. As far as a long war, who knows? Almost nothing in this war has gone exactly as predicted. I can see Russia collapsing due to Ukrainian pressure, but it probably will take a change at the top IMHO for that to happen.

And for those thinking Putin is doomed, 75% of Russians still back the war.  They are not getting the same news we are.....

You are correct that "they" aren't getting the same news we are, but it is also true that polls in Russia are meaningless. The only thing more rationed in Russia than bread is truth. I don't remember who said that, but it is always bang on. Nobody is going to answer a pollster with anything other than what they think he wants to hear. Why should they? If they tell the "truth" they may be asked to go for a cup of Putin tea. If its is a totally legitimate benign poll, no harm done by being careful.
Even more importantly, the "man in the street" will not be the one to bring Putin down (when it finally happens). Civil unrest may be used as an excuse (whether it exists or not), but it will be the FSB and their attached military units that make it actually happen. It may be quite civilized, it may be quite a violent mess, but those will be the guys who do it. After all, they are all that remains of "the center" :-).

Another thing that has to be considered is how much longer is the West willing to be "all in" in terms of support for the Ukraine?  Germany already seems to be balking, we have 100 million in the up coming budget for training Ukrainian pilots to fly US Aircraft, but this year's budget seems destined to be another dance of the idiots.  The Ukraine is going to need a lot more material and financial support  before this is all over.  The UK which had been a strong contributor now has a completely new set of leaders, and it doesn't seem clear how they intend to proceed.  Our continued support seems imperative.  Life is going to be tough this winter in Europe.  Will countries rollover to appease Putin in hopes he turns on the gas?

[GK3]

UA took a bunch of stuff that was lightly defended and they surprised the RA.  This is good news, but doesn't indicate yet that the RA is in rout across the battlefield.  Just in the north.

I can also see the RA retreating from Kherson to behind the Dnipro river.  Their current position makes no sense unless they can attack which they haven't done for months in the south.

Six weeks or so ago Russia probably could have pulled in their outposts and retreated across the Dnipro. Ukraine might have been glad to see them go. Today, Russia cannot realistically do so. The tactical reason is that the Ukraine now has the bridges around Kherson in range of their artillery. While Ukraine has finally admitted they can't totally block the bridges to traffic by damaging them, it is equally true that Russia cannot use them without incurring horrific casualties. Furthermore, a withdrawal under fire is probably the most difficult military operation that exists.

The Russian units in Kherson and vicinity are a hodgepodge of different units with deficient training. Some of them are untrained. There is a shortage of POL in Kherson. The Russian BTG organization virtually assures that most of the units have not ever worked together and probably cannot reliably communicate. An attempt to withdraw would be a catastrophe. The Ukraine would interdict the river crossings, destroy the continued buildup of retreating Russians on the bridge approaches, and would be right on the heels (possibly ahead of) the rear guard leaving Kherson. It would be a massacre. On top of that, the Russians would undoubtedly be unable to blow the bridges before the Ukrainian troops arrived. For this reason, Russia is better off fighting it out where they are. At least there is the possibility Ukraine will not push fast enough and winter will save them. If they have to fight, it would at least be from prepared positions, not standing waiting their turn to run across a bridge under observed indirect fire. At that point, when they are overrun they can at least surrender. You can't surrender to an incoming artillery round.

The political reason Russia cannot abandon Kherson at the moment is that it would be yet another shock to the public demonstrating the Russian armies incompetence. Two of those in a row would be very bad. Given there is no good choice here, staying put at least allows the possibility Ukraine will not push you out. 

Maybe the RA collapses from here.  But my guess is a long war.  A RA counter attack wouldn't shock me....

A spoiling attack would actually be a good idea at this point if Russia could mount one. It doesn't have to be real successful, but if it can buy them a month or so the weather might save them. Anybodies guess whether they can pull it off, and I am sure Ukraine knows that is the "school solution" as well as Russia does. As far as a long war, who knows? Almost nothing in this war has gone exactly as predicted. I can see Russia collapsing due to Ukrainian pressure, but it probably will take a change at the top IMHO for that to happen.

And for those thinking Putin is doomed, 75% of Russians still back the war.  They are not getting the same news we are.....

You are correct that "they" aren't getting the same news we are, but it is also true that polls in Russia are meaningless. The only thing more rationed in Russia than bread is truth. I don't remember who said that, but it is always bang on. Nobody is going to answer a pollster with anything other than what they think he wants to hear. Why should they? If they tell the "truth" they may be asked to go for a cup of Putin tea. If its is a totally legitimate benign poll, no harm done by being careful.
Even more importantly, the "man in the street" will not be the one to bring Putin down (when it finally happens). Civil unrest may be used as an excuse (whether it exists or not), but it will be the FSB and their attached military units that make it actually happen. It may be quite civilized, it may be quite a violent mess, but those will be the guys who do it. After all, they are all that remains of "the center" :-).

Another thing that has to be considered is how much longer is the West willing to be "all in" in terms of support for the Ukraine?  Germany already seems to be balking, we have 100 million in the up coming budget for training Ukrainian pilots to fly US Aircraft, but this year's budget seems destined to be another dance of the idiots.  The Ukraine is going to need a lot more material and financial support  before this is all over.  The UK which had been a strong contributor now has a completely new set of leaders, and it doesn't seem clear how they intend to proceed.  Our continued support seems imperative.  Life is going to be tough this winter in Europe.  Will countries rollover to appease Putin in hopes he turns on the gas?