[BigJohn043]

I think it is a good idea to take a step back. Indeed this is a major victory for Ukraine. It appears the Russia troops, and particularly units from the occupied areas, have collapsed. However, many of the withdrawals were not in response to Ukrainian pressure. Many of them made no sense at all, as the units involved weren't supplied through the GLOCS taken by Ukraine. It was just panic. Ukraine has a big job ahead to catch up with the retreating Russians (or the Russian border) and establish a defensive line that will prevent Russian units from simply returning. Exploiting the current state of affairs (whatever that actually is) is going to require a major effort and probably lots of re-planning. This part is all good.

However, IMHO barring a change at the top in Moscow, this doesn't end this war, unfortunately. It is true that losing a battle does not necessarily lose the war. It may do that. However, this battle is not it. Russia still has intact forces occupying lots of Ukraine that didn't run. This war will not end without Putin declaring a general mobilization as a last roll of the dice (at a minimum). If Putin is going to be defeated in Ukraine, he will for sure be ousted. He has nothing to lose at that point by actually declaring war. It won't help him much, at least in the near term, but it may buy him some time. Until we see that happen, this war continues. Obviously, a change at the top removes this constraint. Putin may also do something else, like chemical weapons etc. None of us can predict that part. We can only hope his subordinates simply won't (or can't) do it.

FWIW, I strongly agree with this.  UA took a bunch of stuff that was lightly defended and they surprised the RA.  This is good news, but doesn't indicate yet that the RA is in rout across the battlefield.  Just in the north.

I can also see the RA retreating from Kherson to behind the Dnipro river.  Their current position makes no sense unless they can attack which they haven't done for months in the south.

Maybe the RA collapses from here.  But my guess is a long war.  A RA counter attack wouldn't shock me....

And for those thinking Putin is doomed, 75% of Russians still back the war.  They are not getting the same news we are.....

[BigJohn043]

I think it is a good idea to take a step back. Indeed this is a major victory for Ukraine. It appears the Russia troops, and particularly units from the occupied areas, have collapsed. However, many of the withdrawals were not in response to Ukrainian pressure. Many of them made no sense at all, as the units involved weren't supplied through the GLOCS taken by Ukraine. It was just panic. Ukraine has a big job ahead to catch up with the retreating Russians (or the Russian border) and establish a defensive line that will prevent Russian units from simply returning. Exploiting the current state of affairs (whatever that actually is) is going to require a major effort and probably lots of re-planning. This part is all good.

However, IMHO barring a change at the top in Moscow, this doesn't end this war, unfortunately. It is true that losing a battle does not necessarily lose the war. It may do that. However, this battle is not it. Russia still has intact forces occupying lots of Ukraine that didn't run. This war will not end without Putin declaring a general mobilization as a last roll of the dice (at a minimum). If Putin is going to be defeated in Ukraine, he will for sure be ousted. He has nothing to lose at that point by actually declaring war. It won't help him much, at least in the near term, but it may buy him some time. Until we see that happen, this war continues. Obviously, a change at the top removes this constraint. Putin may also do something else, like chemical weapons etc. None of us can predict that part. We can only hope his subordinates simply won't (or can't) do it.

FWIW, I strongly agree with this.  UA took a bunch of stuff that was lightly defended and they surprised the RA.  This is good news, but doesn't indicate yet that the RA is in rout across the battlefield.  Just in the north.

I can also see the RA retreating from Kherson to behind the Dnipro river.  Their current position makes no sense unless they can attack which they haven't done for months in the south.

Maybe the RA collapses from here.  But my guess is a long war.  A RA counter attack wouldn't shock me....

And for those thinking Putin is doomed, 75% of Russians still back the war.  They are not getting the same news we are.....