[Goose]

General mobilization will get Putin nothing but more trouble. Conscripts going off to fight a losing war with old gear will have the same issues that caused a whole Russian front to abandon their gear and run in Kharkiv.

Putin is dumb but he probably knows this at least, and that's why he hasn't instituted one yet. Losing Crimea and the separatist republics will be a blow, but he has managed to pretty much eliminate other power centers in the country. A negotiated withdrawal is probably a better chance for Putin to retain power than a general draft that still ends in defeat.

You could certainly be correct. There are several factors involved. One of them is, as you point out, whether Putin believes a general mobilization will help enough to prevent a rapid but not immediate victory by Ukraine. Even if he believes that it will, the political backlash against so doing could be considerable. This political backlash is probably much more of a deterrent than any other factor IMHO. However, there is already (and has been for a while) a very strong push from the "hawks" in Russia to take the gloves off, mobilize, crush Ukraine and end this thing. These folks aren't going to tolerate a negotiated withdrawal or anything like it. These are also the people who can overthrow Putin. Because of this, even if Putin doesn't believe full mobilization will work (and it certainly won't in the short term), he isn't going to quit without trying it. The hawk's won't let him, and without their support Putin is gone.

It does seem like Kherson is going to fall soon. Russia has no operational reserves to reinforce this area and troops are rumored to be running out of ammo and surrendering in a patchwork fashion. 

After that it's only a question of where Ukraine decides to make their push to the Azov sea, and whether any Russians will fight knowing how many of their compatriots just turned tail and ran when they met a determined enemy. Ukraine likely has a lot of GMLRS and TB2 ammo that was ready for use in Kharkiv but quickly became unnecessary due to the rout, now the Ukrainian general staff gets the fun job of deciding when and where to deploy it!

Russia is in a much worse tactical situation in Kherson than they were in the north. For a while I thought they were going to just evacuate since their initial response was so tepid. They then transferred significant reinforcements to the area. Now, due to the optics of a second significant loss being so bad, it would appear Russia is going to remain in Kherson until forced out. They may be hoping the weather will turn and slow Ukraine down around Kherson city. It is also not impossible we will see a spoiling attack by Russia.

I think we need to be realistic about what has happened in the north. We don't (well I don't anyway) know how many Russian BTGs were actually in the areas that Ukraine has overrun. It is clear the Russians are not flush with troops anywhere. Many of the troops in the north were LPR forces and therefore had almost no combat power to begin with. How much actual damage was done to Russia's military is still unknown. It is undoubtedly severe, but what it did to the actual ORBAT is still unknown. Until it is known, it is impossible to predict how much freedom of action Ukraine actually has.

I don't know what reserves Ukraine has in that area. I don't know what Ukraine intends to do about placing their restored territory in a state of defense. I don't know if Ukraine intends to apply immediate pressure to Luhansk from the north, but if I were a betting man my answer would be yes. I think Kherson is going to be decided mostly by forces that are already in place.

I still want to know where the Russian 3rd corps went. Ukraine really doesn't want such a unit to pop up in an inconvenient location. The initial destination seemed to be Donetsk.

[Goose]

General mobilization will get Putin nothing but more trouble. Conscripts going off to fight a losing war with old gear will have the same issues that caused a whole Russian front to abandon their gear and run in Kharkiv.

Putin is dumb but he probably knows this at least, and that's why he hasn't instituted one yet. Losing Crimea and the separatist republics will be a blow, but he has managed to pretty much eliminate other power centers in the country. A negotiated withdrawal is probably a better chance for Putin to retain power than a general draft that still ends in defeat.

You could certainly be correct. There are several factors involved. One of them is, as you point out, whether Putin believes a general mobilization will help enough to prevent a rapid but not immediate victory by Ukraine. Even if he believes that it will, the political backlash against so doing could be considerable. This political backlash is probably much more of a deterrent than any other factor IMHO. However, there is already (and has been for a while) a very strong push from the "hawks" in Russia to take the gloves off, mobilize, crush Ukraine and end this thing. These folks aren't going to tolerate a negotiated withdrawal or anything like it. These are also the people who can overthrow Putin. Because of this, even if Putin doesn't believe full mobilization will work (and it certainly won't in the short term), he isn't going to quit without trying it. The hawk's won't let him, and without their support Putin is gone.

It does seem like Kherson is going to fall soon. Russia has no operational reserves to reinforce this area and troops are rumored to be running out of ammo and surrendering in a patchwork fashion. 

After that it's only a question of where Ukraine decides to make their push to the Azov sea, and whether any Russians will fight knowing how many of their compatriots just turned tail and ran when they met a determined enemy. Ukraine likely has a lot of GMLRS and TB2 ammo that was ready for use in Kharkiv but quickly became unnecessary due to the rout, now the Ukrainian general staff gets the fun job of deciding when and where to deploy it!

Russia is in a much worse tactical situation in Kherson than they were in the north. For a while I thought they were going to just evacuate since their initial response was so tepid. They then transferred significant reinforcements to the area. Now, due to the optics of a second significant loss being so bad, it would appear Russia is going to remain in Kherson until forced out. They may be hoping the weather will turn and slow Ukraine down around Kherson city. It is also not impossible we will see a spoiling attack by Russia.

I think we need to be realistic about what has happened in the north. We don't (well I don't anyway) know how many Russian BTGs were actually in the areas that Ukraine has overrun. It is clear the Russians are not flush with troops anywhere. Many of the troops in the north were LPR forces and therefore had almost no combat power to begin with. How much actual damage was done to Russia's military is still unknown. It is undoubtedly severe, but what it did to the actual ORBAT is still unknown. Until it is known, it is impossible to predict how much freedom of action Ukraine actually has.

I don't know what reserves Ukraine has in that area. I don't know what Ukraine intends to do about placing their restored territory in a state of defense. I don't know if Ukraine intends to apply immediate pressure to Luhansk from the north, but if I were a betting man my answer would be yes. I think Kherson is going to be decided mostly by forces that are already in place.

I still want to know where the Russian 3rd corps went. Ukraine really doesn't want such a unit to pop up in an inconvenient location. The initial destination seemed to be Donetsk.