[Goose]

How significant is the territory that Ukraine is capturing?  Mariupol and Kherson City are indisputably significant cities with prewar populations numbering near half a million.  Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and Melitopol are smaller, but still ~100,000 each.  But that's not the terrain Ukraine has captured or appears close to capturing.  The town of Davydiv Brid (which appears to be a target Ukraine wants but hasn't yet taken) apparently had a prewar population of < 2,000.  The town of Oleksandrivka (another significant battle front that I don't think Ukraine has taken) had a prewar population of < 3,000.  Balakliya (which Ukraine reportedly encircled) is bigger at ~25,000, but still not the type of prize that normally makes headlines.  These are not isolated cases.  Ukraine mostly is taking farm land or towns/villages with very small populations or unreported populations.  Is there something about these locations like altitude or rail access that makes us think Ukraine is about to gain a whole bunch more territory that includes bigger towns?  Do we have reason to think Russia isn't just surrendering these towns to take more defensible positions elsewhere?  Or are we just being hopeful that past victories presage future ones?  Or maybe, after the losses Ukraine suffered in the Donbas, any gains are rightly seen as a victory worth celebrating?

Many of the smaller settlements being secured in the south are valuable because they sit astride secondary roads that lead to Kherson. These roads are now denied to Russia but available as lines of advance for Ukraine. Ukraine now has Kherson within artillery range. It is a tightening noose. Eventually you have a surrounded metropolis. That is where Ukraine is going in the south. These victories do matter.

In the north, it is much harder to say. The "objective" of that attack is unknown. It may have none other than occupying territory, and that is always a bad situation. Liberating people is always good, but you don't want to spread yourself too thin in doing so. Lets see how this unfolds.

[Goose]

How significant is the territory that Ukraine is capturing?  Mariupol and Kherson City are indisputably significant cities with prewar populations numbering near half a million.  Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and Melitopol are smaller, but still ~100,000 each.  But that's not the terrain Ukraine has captured or appears close to capturing.  The town of Davydiv Brid (which appears to be a target Ukraine wants but hasn't yet taken) apparently had a prewar population of < 2,000.  The town of Oleksandrivka (another significant battle front that I don't think Ukraine has taken) had a prewar population of < 3,000.  Balakliya (which Ukraine reportedly encircled) is bigger at ~25,000, but still not the type of prize that normally makes headlines.  These are not isolated cases.  Ukraine mostly is taking farm land or towns/villages with very small populations or unreported populations.  Is there something about these locations like altitude or rail access that makes us think Ukraine is about to gain a whole bunch more territory that includes bigger towns?  Do we have reason to think Russia isn't just surrendering these towns to take more defensible positions elsewhere?  Or are we just being hopeful that past victories presage future ones?  Or maybe, after the losses Ukraine suffered in the Donbas, any gains are rightly seen as a victory worth celebrating?

Many of the smaller settlements being secured in the south are valuable because they sit astride secondary roads that lead to Kherson. These roads are now denied to Russia but available as lines of advance for Ukraine. Ukraine now has Kherson within artillery range. It is a tightening noose. Eventually you have a surrounded metropolis. That is where Ukraine is going in the south. These victories do matter.

In the north, it is much harder to say. The "objective" of that attack is unknown. It may have none other than occupying territory, and that is always a bad situation. Liberating people is always good, but you don't want to spread yourself too thin in doing so. Lets see how this unfolds.