[TrumpCard]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status...xqW0hgXlGg

Good visualization of Ukrainian gains in the east. Ukraine is mounting two different offensives now that each seem to be advancing more rapidly than Russia's offensive in Luhansk.

Perhaps Ukraine will be doing an operational pause soon to consolidate, but I think we're past the turning point now, Ukraine has the initiative. Past the end of the beginning, getting closer to the beginning of the end.

Lets wait and see what the POW count from this operation is. Restoring a significant amount of territory to Ukraine is great, but if the Russians just retreated in good order (or Ukraine was advancing into mostly empty space) it is much less great. It is interesting looking at the time lapse to see the Russian position was a salient which Ukraine collapsed. Ukraine now has a salient into Russian positions. Lets see if the salient expands in width or deepens. Expands is good. Deepens can be good too but carries much more risk.

How significant is the territory that Ukraine is capturing?  Mariupol and Kherson City are indisputably significant cities with prewar populations numbering near half a million.  Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and Melitopol are smaller, but still ~100,000 each.  But that's not the terrain Ukraine has captured or appears close to capturing.  The town of Davydiv Brid (which appears to be a target Ukraine wants but hasn't yet taken) apparently had a prewar population of < 2,000.  The town of Oleksandrivka (another significant battle front that I don't think Ukraine has taken) had a prewar population of < 3,000.  Balakliya (which Ukraine reportedly encircled) is bigger at ~25,000, but still not the type of prize that normally makes headlines.  These are not isolated cases.  Ukraine mostly is taking farm land or towns/villages with very small populations or unreported populations.  Is there something about these locations like altitude or rail access that makes us think Ukraine is about to gain a whole bunch more territory that includes bigger towns?  Do we have reason to think Russia isn't just surrendering these towns to take more defensible positions elsewhere?  Or are we just being hopeful that past victories presage future ones? Or maybe, after the losses Ukraine suffered in the Donbas, any gains are rightly seen as a victory worth celebrating?

[TrumpCard]

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status...xqW0hgXlGg

Good visualization of Ukrainian gains in the east. Ukraine is mounting two different offensives now that each seem to be advancing more rapidly than Russia's offensive in Luhansk.

Perhaps Ukraine will be doing an operational pause soon to consolidate, but I think we're past the turning point now, Ukraine has the initiative. Past the end of the beginning, getting closer to the beginning of the end.

Lets wait and see what the POW count from this operation is. Restoring a significant amount of territory to Ukraine is great, but if the Russians just retreated in good order (or Ukraine was advancing into mostly empty space) it is much less great. It is interesting looking at the time lapse to see the Russian position was a salient which Ukraine collapsed. Ukraine now has a salient into Russian positions. Lets see if the salient expands in width or deepens. Expands is good. Deepens can be good too but carries much more risk.

How significant is the territory that Ukraine is capturing?  Mariupol and Kherson City are indisputably significant cities with prewar populations numbering near half a million.  Lysychansk, Severodonetsk, and Melitopol are smaller, but still ~100,000 each.  But that's not the terrain Ukraine has captured or appears close to capturing.  The town of Davydiv Brid (which appears to be a target Ukraine wants but hasn't yet taken) apparently had a prewar population of < 2,000.  The town of Oleksandrivka (another significant battle front that I don't think Ukraine has taken) had a prewar population of < 3,000.  Balakliya (which Ukraine reportedly encircled) is bigger at ~25,000, but still not the type of prize that normally makes headlines.  These are not isolated cases.  Ukraine mostly is taking farm land or towns/villages with very small populations or unreported populations.  Is there something about these locations like altitude or rail access that makes us think Ukraine is about to gain a whole bunch more territory that includes bigger towns?  Do we have reason to think Russia isn't just surrendering these towns to take more defensible positions elsewhere?  Or are we just being hopeful that past victories presage future ones? Or maybe, after the losses Ukraine suffered in the Donbas, any gains are rightly seen as a victory worth celebrating?